821 FXUS66 KLOX 302345 AAA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 425 PM PDT SAT MAR 30 2013 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE WORK WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...VERY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CUTOFF LOW ABOUT 600 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED IT'S SOUTHWARD DRIFT AND NOW APPEARS TO BE HEADED EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAY AREA AS MODELS HAVE PREDICTED FOR SOME TIME NOW. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP IS VERY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COAST, CURRENTLY ABOUT 60-80 MILES WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING ABOUT 10 KT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE SPEED WILL LIKELY PICK UP AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE 100-110 KT UPPER JET NOSES ITS WAY INTO SRN SBA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THIS JET SHOULD HELP AT LEAST PARTLY REINVIGORATE WHAT IS NOW A RATHER ANEMIC LOOKING COLD FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS TO SBA/SLO COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE PRECIP AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING WHILE FURTHER INLAND AREAS TOWARDS THE KERN COUNTY LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER JET SLIDES NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW AND AS THIS HAPPENS SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT WILL LESSEN AND THE FRONT WILL START TO WASH OUT AS IT TRAVERSES EAST THROUGH VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES. STILL THINK IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPAWN SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY VENTURA COUNTY, BUT IT'S STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERATE MORE THAN JUST TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HENCE, WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN NORTHERN AREAS UP TO 80-90%, FURTHER SOUTH POPS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 30-50 RANGE, AND EVEN THAT MIGHT BE A BIT HIGH FOR LA COUNTY GIVEN THAT THE GFS AND THE HIGH RES LOCAL WRF MODEL BASICALLY TOSS A SHUTOUT TO A LARGE PORTION OF THAT AREA. IN ANY CASE, A VERY LOW IMPACT EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EVEN FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SUNDAY. FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THE LION'S SHARE OF THE LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SO LIGHT THAT IT SHOULDN'T POSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR OUTDOOR EASTER GATHERINGS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH NORTH AND LESS THAN A TENTH (PERHAPS CLOSER TO ZERO) SOUTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z. MAY ACTUALLY GET SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS BEHIND IT AND MAYBE EVEN SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE, THOUGH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. A SECONDARY FRONT, THE ONE CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO THE LOW CENTER NEAR 128 WEST, MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION SUNDAY EVENING AND HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FOR THOSE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY NOON SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER THAT. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER. MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF IN MOST AREAS LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY OVERALL. A RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR TUE WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPS INLAND, PERHAPS EVEN SOME 80S IN THE VALLEYS, THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LYR CLOUDS WILL KEEP IT MUCH COOLER FOR THE COAST. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...WED EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR AREA AND EITHER NEUTRAL SURFACE GRADIENTS OR WEAKLY OFFSHORE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE VALLEYS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED 90 OR TWO IN THE WARMER AREAS. A COOLING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION, AND EVEN IN THOSE AREAS RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXTREMELY LIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COOLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...30/2300Z...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTERACTS WITH THE MARINE LAYER. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL COAST LATER THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS BAND...IT APPEARS THAT STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION...BUT THAT IT FAR FROM A GUARANTEE. WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SLOWLY IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS COULD SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 01Z AND 07Z. KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN O0Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL AT LEAST 13Z. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...DB SYNOPSIS...KJ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES