480 FXUS64 KHGX 301724 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013 .DISCUSSION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT BOW ECHO THAT DECAYED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY STRATOCU/CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STRATUS BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHING FROM C TX THEN CURVING NE TOWARDS ARKLATEX. MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT STILL QUESTIONABLE. KEPT MVFR AND TEMPO IFR. HOUSTON TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE FENCE BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS. MENTION SCT STRATUS DECK WITH BKN MVFR DECK IN TEMPO FOR KIAH/KHOU/KSGR. NAM SHOWS DRIER 925MB AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. KEPT SAME TREND FOR KLBX AND KGLS. ONLY OTHER QUESTION WILL BE CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MOVES SE INTO THE PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. MENTION VCTS FOR KIAH 30 HR TAF PERIOD. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013/ DISCUSSION... WENT AHEAD WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM POP GRIDS AS THE UP- PER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER DID KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE AFTN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AP- PROACHES FROM THE W/NW. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013/ SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HEAVIER EASTWARD MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MODELS ARE INDICATING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THEIR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CARRY LOW POPS (20%-30%) TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY AS A POSSIBLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. UNLESS RAINS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE UNDER A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. STILL THINKING THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA COMES ON TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COOL OUR AREA DOWN. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST PROVIDES THE BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. IF THE MODELS ARE OFF ON THE TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...OUR POPS COULD END UP BEING WAY OFF. HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EARLY APRIL STORM SYSTEM...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT LOCATIONS GET THIS RAIN AND WHEN IT HAPPENS. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 79 63 79 63 80 / 30 20 40 20 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 63 77 63 80 / 20 20 30 20 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 74 65 74 65 75 / 20 20 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...39