231 
FXUS63 KOAX 301135
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
635 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING AROUND KLNK BY 14-15Z WITH PATCHY
MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT KOFK AND KOMA UP TO THIS SAME TIME.
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT ALL SITES 15Z-18Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY...AND PCPN 
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR 
NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE PCPN 
TODAY SHOULD BE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT SOME SHOWERS 
COULD POP UP WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AS SUGGEST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE 
RAP MODEL. HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE QUITE MILD...IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 
70S. WILL STAY FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS AGAIN TODAY...GOING 
WITH LOWER 60S NORTH TO MID OR UPPER 60S NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. 

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR 
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND 00Z NAM SUGGESTS THESE COULD CLIP THE FAR 
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. 
KEPT ALL OTHER AREAS DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...
AS FIRST BATCH OF COOLER AIR MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...SINCE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING OUT COOLER... 
AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING. SO...KEPT A FAIRLY GOOD RANGE OF 
HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE NORTH 
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO MID DAY...THEN SLOWLY FALL. EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE 
TO SATURATE FAIRLY FAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH MID LEVEL OMEGA VALUES 
REACHING AS HIGH AS 15 MICROBARS PER SECOND. LIFT SHIFTS QUICKLY
TO THE SOUTH THOUGH SO EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS MAINLY 0.10 OR LESS.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD PROBABLY BE HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...BUT
HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MILLER

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S TUESDAY TO MAINLY 
50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN TOWARD THE LOWER OR MID 60S BY 
FRIDAY. PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY SMALL BUT DID MENTION A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT