273 FXUS64 KHGX 300317 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1017 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 .DISCUSSION... THIS EVENING HAVE HAD A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE OFF THE GULF GIVING TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT HOU AND EFD FOR EXAMPLE. FOR THIS REASON HAD ADDED SPRINKLES INTO THE FORECAST. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER N TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS IS REFLECTED IN SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS RAPID REFRESH AND TEXAS TECH WRF AND IS FORMING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE WHICH IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLOWING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF TEXAS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN SOME HAS IT HEADS EAST...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS CAPPED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL THINK SHOWERS COULD SURVIVE AND HAVE KEPT AND EXTENDED A TAD FARTHER SOUTH THE 20 POP FOR OUR NORTHEN COUNTIES. SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT WILL HAVE A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A TAD MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THINK BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY...AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN HALF...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS LOSE THEIR CAP AND THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT NEAR AND NORTH OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. 46 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013/ DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CLOUDS SHOULD STAY AROUND TONIGHT HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG BUT THINK IT WILL BE PATCHY AT MOST GIVEN THE CLOUDS. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS STRONGER MORE LOCALIZED PVA MAXIMUMS WITH THE DISTURBANCES WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BROADER PVA CENTERS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS LIMITED ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. SATURATION IN THE SOUNDINGS OCCUR AT THE MID LEVELS ABOVE A DRY LAYER. THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LAYER AT ~750 MB ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS SOUTH. FEEL LIKE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SOUTH MAY ONLY BE VIRGA AND NOT REACH THE GROUND. THE NEXT FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AROUND 1 PM. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. A SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE SWINGING THE THROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE AREA BY 1 AM THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOESN'T MOVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY THOUGH. EITHER WAY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 23 MARINE... ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA TONIGHT BEYOND 20NM...BUT SHOULD JUST BE FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. WILL NOT HOIST CAUTION FLAGS BUT JUST GO W/ 15KT ATTM. OTHERWISE...NO REAL CONCERNS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON TUE. IN ADDITION TO SEAS...MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE COULD DRIVE WATER LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AT THIS POINT THOUGH. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 79 61 79 63 / 20 30 20 30 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 62 77 61 80 63 / 10 20 10 20 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 64 73 64 75 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$