165 FXUS64 KLUB 291001 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 501 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013 .SHORT TERM... OUR NEW DUAL-POLARIZATION RADAR WILL LIKELY SAMPLE ITS FIRST THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS A RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. AT 08Z...THE BASE OF THIS WAVE WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING WESTERN AZ COMPLETE WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX/CURL NEAR THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AFTER CRESTING SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...THIS WAVE IS TIMED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA NEAR PEAK HEATING. WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT PRACTICALLY GUARANTEED...ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED ON A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MIXING OUT OF NM AND A WAVY EAST-WEST STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY NORTH OF I-40 IN THE TX PANHANDLE. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING COULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT FOCUS TODAY IS ON STORM CHANCES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY ACTUALLY TAKE A BACKSEAT TO THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE BY MIDDAY AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPAND OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND PROMOTE DEEP MIXING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE OFTEN TENDS TO BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED LIFT AND ULTIMATELY CI. NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...A PRONOUNCED EML APPEARS HIGHLY FORMIDABLE FOR STORM CHANCES...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION AS CINH HERE IS PROGGED TO ERODE TO -10 TO -50 BY 00Z. A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE IN ORDER LATER TODAY CONSIDERING MLCAPE AROUND 1K J/KG...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AOA 35 KNOTS AND SUFFICIENT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES PREVAILING FARTHER WEST. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS NEAR THE FRONT...TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE HINDERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE S/W TROUGH SPELLS POPS ENDING FROM WEST-EAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE SURFACE FRONT EDGING SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS WEAKENING FRONT IN THE AREA THROUGH SAT MORNING...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY DISRUPTION TO OUR RECENT RUN OF MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM... FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT STILL NOT BE ABLE TO FULLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA. SETUP WILL BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS IN FRONT AND DRYLINE POSITION WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT. ALSO DIFFERENT IS THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH MAY FAVOR POP CHANCES FOR AFTER DARK. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED BUT WILL HOLD OFF PLACING SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. A BIT BETTER FRONTAL PUSH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN CONTINUE TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. NOT TOO SURE HOW LONG PRECIP WILL LAST HOWEVER MODELS DO KEEP INCREASED BOUNDARY MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WOULD FAVOR LIGHT DRIZZLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON TIMING AND CLOUD COVER. STRONGER FRONT WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPS TO PULL DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. ROLLING PLAINS SEES SOME MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE SO HELD ON TO TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY MORNING AND THEN EXPAND IT AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN VALUES. THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 50S WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS CLIMBS INTO THE LOW 70S. COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TROF PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TRACK OF THE WAVE WITH THE GFS NOW TRACKING THE WAVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CMC MUDDLES THINGS EVEN FURTHER WITH A VERY WEAK TROF MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. ONLY THING THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH IS INCREASING POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM PRECIPITATION MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN RATHER THAN A GULF MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA. DID UP POPS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT KEPT THEM BELOW MENTION ONCE AGAIN UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WILL THEN UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A RETURN OF A SLOSHING DRYLINE AND TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 77 50 78 45 68 / 20 20 10 10 10 TULIA 76 51 79 49 71 / 20 20 10 20 10 PLAINVIEW 78 51 81 50 71 / 20 20 10 20 10 LEVELLAND 82 52 84 49 72 / 20 20 10 10 10 LUBBOCK 82 54 85 50 72 / 20 20 10 10 10 DENVER CITY 82 54 85 51 76 / 20 10 10 10 10 BROWNFIELD 83 55 85 51 74 / 20 20 10 10 10 CHILDRESS 77 57 77 53 69 / 20 30 20 20 10 SPUR 80 55 84 54 74 / 20 30 20 20 10 ASPERMONT 80 58 83 55 76 / 20 30 20 20 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 93/14