137 FXUS61 KBOX 290116 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 915 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WILL BRING A SERIES OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE MANY HOURS OF DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME INCLUDING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY MODERATE SUN AND MON...HOWEVER A RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MON INTO TUE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 915 PM UPDATE... ISOLATED SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEY SHOULD BE COMPLETELY GONE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ITS UNCERTAIN THOUGH HOW QUICKLY THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SCOUR OUT. THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THAT. SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY THIS EVENING AND THERE IS NOT REALLY A STRONG PUSH OF DRY AIR TO CLEAR THEM OUT. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACORSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. HOWEVER...JUST EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AND MAY BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY... SHOULD BEGIN THE DAY WITH SUNSHINE BUT APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 500 MB TEMPS OF -30C TO -32C WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE HERE AS ALL MODEL GUID HAVE AT LEAST SOME QPF TOMORROW AFTN. AGAIN NOT A WASHOUT BUT BE PREPARED FOR A FEW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS. HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE L50S WITH U40S HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FRI NIGHT... SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND PARTIAL CLEARING. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT GIVEN MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW DEW PTS/LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... * WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND * SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF WARM FRONT SUN AND MON * COOLER WEATHER MOVES BACK IN TUES AND WED OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY /AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/...THEN SEASONABLE OR BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS IN TURN SHIFTS THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION... ALLOWING WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...REACHING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS IS WHERE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS BRINGS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WHILE THERE IS LESS INDICATION OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ON THE ECMWF. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. EXCELLENT MIXING...ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION DRAG WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND AT THIS POINT BUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA CAN/T BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN COOLER...DRIER WEATHER. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL BUT THATS TO BE EXPECTED IN THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR AND DRY TONIGHT. VFR TO START FRI BUT THEN DIURNAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEST N-NW WINDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING PEAKING HEATING OF THE DAY TIL SUNSET OR SO. ISOLATED AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY WILL STAY BELOW 25 KTS. COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 25 KTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE LIMITED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG MARINE...NOCERA/RLG