659 
FXUS63 KFGF 282045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FOG ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS BEEN A REAL HEADACHE TODAY.
WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM WITH SOME HOLES
DEVELOPING IN LATEST SATELLITE LOOP...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
STILL REPORTING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS FOG WILL EXPAND THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN
SOME FORM MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ND...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
A NEW ADVISORY IS NEEDED THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NORTHERN VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MN HAS ALSO REMAINED STATIONARY
TODAY. LATEST RAP SHOWS 850 HPA MOISTURE DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT...
BUT STILL EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
WILL CREATE A CHAOTIC TEMPERATURE PATTERN...BUT FOR AREAS THAT
CLEAR OUT...EXPECT LOWER TO MID TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. 

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK OPEN WAVE 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285 K SURFACE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA COINCIDENT WITH THERMAL GRADIENT. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH SUB-
FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT IN FREEZING ON CONTACT. 
USED SREF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TO DELINEATE AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN/SNOW...ALTHOUGH DOMINANT TYPE SHOULD BE FREEZING
RAIN. OVERALL...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF INCH OR
LESS...BUT TRAVEL COULD BECOME TRICKY FOR AREAS THAT SEE
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES CRASH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S REGION-WIDE AND 25 TO 30 KTS IN A
VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW 
NORMAL FOR MON/TUE. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT FOR THU. THERE IS STILL A DEEP SNOW PACK IN PLACE IN ALL 
AREAS...SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODULATED BY THE SNOW COVER. NO 
MAJOR STORMS ARE ON THE HORIZON...AND WILL KEEP A DRY EXTENDED 
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AND COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR CONDITIONS NEAR DVL WITH LOW CIGS/VSBY FROM DENSE
FOG. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
IN FOG...AND HAVE ALREADY MENTIONED MVFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE. 

&&

$$

ROGERS/DK