848 FXUS63 KFGF 281546 AAA AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1046 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 .DISCUSSION... WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TOWNER/BENSON/EDDY/RAMSEY AND CAVALIER COUNTIES THROUGH 18 UTC. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND WITH VISIBILITY STILL BELOW 1/4 SM IN AREAS... FEEL AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. MAY NEED TO EXTEND IN TIME IF SOLAR ALOFT CANNOT BREAK IT UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER CHALLENGES INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER/ FOG OVERNIGHT PLAYED HAVOC WITH MORNING LOWS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. 15 UTC TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 9 ABOVE AT DEVILS LAKE WHERE FOG HAS JUST LIFTED TO 39 ABOVE AT WASKISH WITH FULL SUN. FOG ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EVEN IF IT BREAKS UP LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE AT BEST WILL REACH THE MID 20S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID 30S ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORESTS OF NORTHWEST MN. THESE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM HALLOCK TO ROSEAU AND POINTS SOUTH TO ALEXANDRIA AND WADENA. LATEST RAP SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE...SO AREAS WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER MAY NOT REACH FORECAST HIGHS. OTHERWISE...ILL-DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND. BESIDES TWEAKING TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION... AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE PATCHY BR AND IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING NEAR KDVL THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013/ SHORT TERM... QUITE INTERESTING TEMP PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS SHOWS 925 MB WINDS NR 15 KTS IN NE SD/SE ND/WCNTRL MN AND IN THIS AREA SFC WINDS REMAINING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS AND TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER FARGO-DETROIT LAKES-FERGUS FALLS REGION AND STILL IN THE MID 20S. NORTH OF THIS AREA DVL-GFK NORTHWARD WINDS ARE LIGHTER AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME FOG FORMING. HAVE NOTICED PAST HOUR CLOUDS INCREASING IN MID LEVEL WARM ADV ZONE OVER SE ND AND PUSHING NORTHWARD AND THIS SHOWN SOMEWHAT ON LATEST RAP MODEL IN SPREADING CLOUD COVER NORTHWARD THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. IT ALSO KEEPS TEMPS MUCH MILDER IN THE SRN VALLEY AND PARTS OF WCNTRL MN THRU 12Z. SO DOES LOOK LIKE A WARMER TEMP SURGE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NRN VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING AND TRIED TO ADJUST TEMP CURVE FOR THIS. OVERALL TODAY THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUD COVER VALLEY INTO NW MN IN WARM ADV ZONE AND RAP/GFS SHOWS SOME DECENT 850 MB MOISTURE IN PLACE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TODAY AS WELL TO ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL BUT DVL BASIN. PROVIDED SUN APPEARS AT SOME POINT IN THE FAR EAST TODAY ANOTHER 40-45 DEGREE DAY IS LIKELY. ATTENTION TURNS TO LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT WELL ORGANIZED VORT MAX REGION FROM WASHINGTON STATE INTO MONTANA WILL SPREAD EAST INTO ND/NW MN BY 12Z SAT. SFC LOW WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND THERE WILL A SPREAD OF MOISTURE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO ERN ND AND ESPECIALLY INTO MINNESOTA AND ERN SD AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. TEMP PROFILES USING BUFKIT SHOW ENOUGH WARMING AT 850 AND BELOW FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT. NOW SFC TEMPS SUGGEST PLAIN LIGHT RAIN FOR FAR SRN ND INTO WCNTRL MN AND NORTH CENTRAL MN THRU FRI EVE...WITH TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO 32F IN DVL BASIN AND THE NRN VALLEY FOR RA/FZRA. TEMPS WILL FALL ENOUGH FOR SOME PSBL FZRA IN FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL/NORTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP MOVES OUT SATURDAY MID MORNING. DID KEEP A LITTLE -SN MIX IN NE ND LATE FRI NIGHT AS COOLER 850 MB AIR MOVES IN. WPC WWD GRAPHICS DOWNPLAY THREAT FOR FZRA IN OUR AREA... SREF PROB FOR FZRA ARE HIGHEST IN THE CNTRL RED RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF PTYPE AMOUNDS LOOK LIGHT THOUGH A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PSBL IN WARMER TEMP REGIME IN WCNTRL MN. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND RETROGRESSES OVER EASTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONCURRENTLY LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST CANADIAN COAST WEAKENS. GFS WAS THE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND BECOMES MORE SO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF. ISOLATED LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR SUN NIGHT WAS REMOVED. WITH GFS BEING FAST WILL REMOVE POPS ON WED AND WED NIGHT. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS SUN BY THREE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS RUN FOR MON THROUGH WED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-007- 014-015-024. MN...NONE. && $$ ROGERS/RIDDLE/DK