288 FXUS61 KBOX 280555 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 155 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS THU AND FRI...A DRY BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY MODERATE SUN AND MON...HOWEVER A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 155 AM UPDATE... WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NH...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MILD WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE...PTYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER...NO MORE THAN A LIGHT COATING ON THE GRASS IS EXPECTED EVEN IN THIS REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH WITH RAW...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. INITIAL KICKER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE...GIVING WAY TO DRY NORTH FLOW AND SOME CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... * WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND * AFTN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY * COOLER WEATHER MOVES BACK IN TUES AND WED OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE REFLECTION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. WE APPEAR TO BE TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE NEGATIVE AO PATTERN NEXT WEEK INTO A MORE NEUTRAL PATTERN...ALLOWING A TREND MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW AFTN SHOWERS FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THIS PERIOD...REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS IS WHERE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER MOVING A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE REGION FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN PRECIP BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS KEEPS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION A BIT LONGER AND THEN BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PRECIP NOT BEGINNING UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP WOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS...JUST LATER INTO MONDAY WITH THE SLOWER GFS. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT ALL PRECIP TO BE RAIN...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE GRIDS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE MARITIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH COOL...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY...BREEZY WEATHER. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING... MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS REGION WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE BULK OF THE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR CAN/T BE RULED OUT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THU...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR THOSE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU WITH THE LONG NORTHEAST FETCH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED INTO THU AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN SEAS BUILD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY WILL STAY BELOW 25 KTS. COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS. VSBYS MAY BE LIMITED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...FRANK/RLG MARINE...FRANK/BELK/RLG