817 FXUS64 KMRX 260726 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 325 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2013 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WITHOUT ANY CHANGES. TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY... SO THINK THAT MOST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON...SO THINK THAT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. SINCE AREA GROWERS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED FOR EAST TN (OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS)... WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT... BUT WILL COMPROMISE WHERE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL FINALLY RELEASE ITS EFFECTS ON THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW CLOUDS ERODING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL PRODUCE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER TALKING WITH LOCAL CROP SPECIALIST...AREA BERRIES AND FRUIT TREES HAVE PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PLATEAU THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AN IMPACT. WILL INCLUDE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR LATE SATURDAY THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED... SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 31 52 32 58 / 30 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 42 30 47 30 55 / 50 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 30 47 30 56 / 60 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 40 28 42 28 47 / 80 30 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY... CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON... HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION... MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER... NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE... NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE... SULLIVAN...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK. FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE... BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN... HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON... MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN... SEQUATCHIE...SULLIVAN...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...HANCOCK...HAWKINS... MORGAN...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...SCOTT TN... SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE. && $$ DMG/DH