833 FXUS64 KMEG 231129 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 628 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013/ DISCUSSION... 24 HOURS AGO IT WAS SNOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH NOW WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A ROGUE STORM PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL ACROSS LEE AND ITAWAMBA COUNTIES...PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL WAKE UP TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABERDEEN TO CHARLESTON. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE...MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND A FAIRLY ROBUST VORT MAX WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI. PVA DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL. AS STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTH...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS SURFACE BASED AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH LIKELIHOOD OF BECOMING...OR SUSTAINING...SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER SUNSET...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER...BUT SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH LOOK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW AND LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MARK THE END OF THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...BUT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. ANOTHER TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS HAS IT TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 22 AND 27 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ON SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF SEASONABLY COOL...BUT TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MONDAY IN WEST TENNESSEE...BUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE SUN WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND LIKELY REMAIN VISIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. IF WE ARE LUCKY WE MAY SEE SOME SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES...MAYBE AS WARM AS 70 DEGREES...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE MAINLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ARS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 57 47 54 34 / 80 100 30 10 MKL 57 46 55 31 / 60 100 70 20 JBR 52 43 51 32 / 70 100 30 10 TUP 61 52 61 35 / 80 100 60 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$