106 FXUS63 KDDC 220612 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 112 AM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013 THERE WILL BE JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW, DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL OUT OF THIS STRATIFORM RAIN, AS CIGS ARE IN THE MID LEVEL AND NOT A LOT OF RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 01Z OR SO. WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND NOT INTRODUCE ANY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR SNOW PRECIP TYPES UNTIL AFTER 03Z OR SO IN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR WAKEENEY AND HAYS. THE LAYER NEAR SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR A FEW HOURS, SO SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE IN AREA NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO SAINT JOHN. I DO NOT EXPECT THIS SLEET TO BE WIDESPREAD, AND THUS IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM, TRAVEL-WISE. RAIN, OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXED MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THAT DEFINED AREA, BUT AGAIN ONLY WITH SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION, IF ANY. THIS WAVE HELPING TO PRODUCE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, MINS SHOULD DROP TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH, ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, AND TO THE MID 30S SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FRIDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY AND REMAIN CLOUDY. THE LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 15Z FRIDAY, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TIMING OF THE STILL DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS IN SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP MOST OF FRIDAY DRY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. THE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AS THICK LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT SOLAR HEATING. FOR NOW, WILL STAY WITH UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS IN THE HAYS AREA, THE LOWER 50S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE AREAS, AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE LIBERAL, ELKHART AND HUGOTON AREAS. WINDS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 T0 12 MPH IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013 A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS, BUT AN ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED, WHICH SHOWS A CLOSED 700MB CIRCULATION PASSING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF DODGE CITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THAT A FAIRLY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY. HOWEVER, AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CONSISTENT PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE ECMWF, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO JETMORE TO STAFFORD WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH, BUT AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 6 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS DODGE CITY. COLD WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE STORM, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -10C. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. SOME SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING IN PLACES LIKE WAKEENEY, DIGHTON AND GARDEN CITY WHERE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN MANY PLACES. A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE STILL BEING CARRIED ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH AND EXACTLY WHERE. BUT THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER SO THAT RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013 RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRATUS WILL LIKELY SOON BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT KHYS THROUGH AROUND 10Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS BY 12Z AND STRONG INSOLATION DIMINISHES THE STRATUS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE STORM BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 52 35 35 23 / 10 70 80 80 GCK 52 35 35 21 / 10 90 90 60 EHA 56 35 35 21 / 20 70 70 30 LBL 56 36 36 23 / 10 70 70 40 HYS 48 33 33 23 / 10 90 90 90 P28 52 35 35 28 / 10 50 80 80 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURKE LONG TERM...FINCH AVIATION...RUSSELL