629 FXUS62 KFFC 211817 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 217 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013/ ..RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND EAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... .UPDATE... MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER WITH SOME CIRRUS LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS DOWN A BIT PER LATEST OBS TREND...WHICH DID NOT ALTER AFTERNOON RH VALUES MUCH AND CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING / HIGH FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TARGET. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013/ .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS OR LOWER INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRYING FUELS...LOW RH VALUES AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH OR HIGHER WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. HAVE ISSUED BOTH A RED FLAG WARNING AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. MODELS STILL INDICATING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW. CONSIDERING THE ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...TOP DOWN METHOD CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP...EXPECT A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO ALL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE ATL METRO/AHN AREAS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT BELIEVE THESE AREAS WITH FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND DECIDE IF AN ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. DAY SHIFT WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNING FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA THAT WILL SEE FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN FRIDAY. TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THIS MORNING...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING THIS PRODUCT AS WELL. 31 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN ONGOING BUT UNCERTAINTIES EMERGE WRT PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF RAIN SHIELD. CONSENSUS IS NORTH GA BUT THERE ARE SOME OUTLIER MODELS THAT SHOW PRECIP EITHER SLOWER TO ARRIVE OR FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS WHICH YIELDS CONTINUED LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH 12Z SAT. AFTER INITIAL WAVE OVER NORTH...FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THIS DEVELOPING ZONE AND SOME TRAINING INFLUENCES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR SEVERE POTENTIAL CLOSELY AS SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND HOW MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IT CAN MAKE. ABUNDANT RAINFALL PRECEDING THIS COULD MEAN FRONT WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS PROJECT BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING THE NEXT FEW RUNS. HELICITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL IF HIGHER VALUES OF CAPE CAN BE REALIZED. LOW LIFTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. STILL UNCERTAINTY WRT HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND WE GET BUT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LOW END CHANCE POPS WITH THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DEESE && .FIRE WEATHER... FUEL MOISTURES CONTINUED TO DRY YESTERDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE AT 8 PERCENT OR BELOW. THE 6 PERCENT FUEL MOISTURE AREAS ARE GENERALLY ACROSS NE GA AND ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND IN THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA NEAR COLUMBUS AND AMERICUS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 25 PERCENT OR LESS FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE 15 MPH RFW CRITERIA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AREA MEETING WINDS...RH AND FUELS...AND HAVE GONE WITH A RFD/FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE. && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MAJORITY OF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH PRECIP IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD. GENERALLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING TO NEAR 5 KFT TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET INITIALLY AROUND 08-12Z FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT KAHN...THEN TRANSITION TO -SHRA AFTER 12Z. CIGS LOOK TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO NEAR 8 KFT BY 16Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE TO 4-6 KTS BEFORE BECOMING VRB 3-4 KTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. DIRECTION SHOULD SWING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH MAGNITUDES NEAR 5-6 KTS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP AND OVERNIGHT CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 53 32 56 38 / 0 20 30 80 ATLANTA 51 36 53 41 / 0 30 40 80 BLAIRSVILLE 43 28 51 38 / 0 20 50 90 CARTERSVILLE 49 34 54 40 / 0 40 50 90 COLUMBUS 58 38 58 48 / 0 20 30 30 GAINESVILLE 49 34 53 40 / 0 20 40 90 MACON 56 34 59 44 / 0 20 20 40 ROME 49 35 53 40 / 0 50 50 90 PEACHTREE CITY 52 32 55 41 / 0 30 30 50 VIDALIA 61 39 62 48 / 0 10 20 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB... DAWSON...DEKALB...FANNIN...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK... GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...JACKSON...JEFFERSON... LUMPKIN...MADISON...MORGAN...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE... OGLETHORPE...PICKENS...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS... UNION...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WILKES. && $$ SHORT TERM...31/BAKER LONG TERM....DEESE AVIATION...BAKER