183 
FXUS64 KMOB 192336 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.AVIATION [20.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN 
FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN A NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT OF 5 TO 10 
KTS TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING 
QUICKLY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WILL INTRODUCE INCREASE BY 
AND AFTER 03Z. BASES LOWER TO AROUND 4 KFT BAY DAYBREAK WITH A SMALL 
CHANCE OF -RA. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AROUND 15 KTS BY AND AFTER 
20.15Z AS A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF 
AND LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. /10   

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION / 345 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL 
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE 
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL 
RESULT A COOL SURGE OF AIR FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN 
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED 
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD EXIT 
THE AREA BEFORE THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S INLAND AREAS...WITH 
LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.
/22

&&

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS ALONG 
WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO 
RETURN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 
APPROACHING LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER 
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER 
TROUGH. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY FOR 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE GFS AND ECMWF 
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING OUT OF 
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE 
AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL START THE PERIOD BELOW 
NORMAL BEFORE WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. /13

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL 
GULF LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL 
STRONG OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST...BRINGING A 
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  66  37  65  46 /  10  20  05  05  10 
PENSACOLA   52  67  41  64  50 /  10  20  05  05  10 
DESTIN      52  65  43  64  48 /  05  20  05  05  10 
EVERGREEN   44  65  34  63  40 /  10  20  05  05  10 
WAYNESBORO  43  66  32  64  36 /  20  20  00  05  10 
CAMDEN      42  65  33  63  38 /  10  10  00  05  10 
CRESTVIEW   48  67  35  65  38 /  05  20  05  05  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO 
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL 
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO 
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO 
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM... 

&&

$$