403 FXUS64 KMOB 191903 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 203 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .AVIATION [17.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FEET WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES AFTER 20.09Z...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NO IMPACTS ON TERMINALS EXPECTED. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... THE FCST AREA HAS ALREADY STABILIZED DUE TO TSTM OUTFLOW JUST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION HAS ENDED. THE FRONT HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN HALF OF FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. MUCH DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH NO ADDITIONAL PCPN EXPECTED. BRIEF REDUCTION IN CLOUDS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS AB UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE STILL VERY DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT...ONLY CLOUDS AND NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. A MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND IS EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGER MODERATE WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW/MID 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO COOLING AFFECTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH COOLER TONIGHT THAN PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND FARTHER SOUTH IN SWINGING THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY...RESULTING INTO A COOLER...WETTER FORECAST. WITH THE GFS SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS FEEL THE ANSWER WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL...ALONG WITH POPS ABOVE SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN UPPER ENERGY SWINGS EAST...ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE MORE DEVELOPED...QUICKER...FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION FORMS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW-ERN GULF OF MEX...THEN QUICKLY MOVES IT NNE OVER THE PLAINS/MID MISS RIVER VALLEY TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT EAST OVER THE FA. THE SLOWER...LESS WELL DEVELOPED GFS SOLUTION MOVES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE COOLER...WETTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF AS COMPARED TO THE GFS CONTINUES...WITH DAYTIME HIGH BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. AGAIN...FEEL SOLUTION IS IN THE MIDDLE...SO HAVE COOLED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN TOWARDS THE ECMWF. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLOWER GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FA...THOUGH CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMER SOLUTION. BOTH ADVERTISING HE UPPER LOW MOVE TO EITHER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES(GFS) OR OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA(ECMWF). BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING THE FA UNDER DRIER...COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. THE ECMWF JUST CONTINUE A STRONGER NORTHERLY PUSH. AGAIN...HAVE BLENDED THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE CLOSED N-ERN UPPER LOW OPENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OF THE CONUS...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING MORE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NW-ERN STATES. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WITH MODERATING TEMPS. MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. SCEC LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS. SEAS 3-5 TO 4-6 FEET OFFSHORE WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. 12/DS FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE A SECOND CROSSES THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN DRIER...COOLER NORTHERLY AIR. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE FA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 76 48 66 37 65 / 05 10 20 05 05 PENSACOLA 76 52 67 41 64 / 05 10 20 05 05 DESTIN 74 52 65 43 64 / 10 05 20 05 05 EVERGREEN 74 44 65 34 63 / 05 10 20 05 05 WAYNESBORO 73 43 66 32 64 / 05 20 20 00 05 CAMDEN 72 42 65 33 63 / 05 10 10 00 05 CRESTVIEW 78 48 67 35 65 / 10 05 20 05 05 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$