102 
FXUS64 KCRP 191802 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
102 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION. 

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF STRATUS BLANKETS THE COASTAL BEND INTO THE
VICTORIA REGION. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AT VCT/CRP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALI IS ON THE EDGE OF MVFR DECK AND MAY BOUNCE
AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS FILL
BACK IN TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT
CRP/VCT. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HANDLED THE PROSPECTS OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH VCSH REMARKS FOR NOW. CEILINGS MAY
BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARDS THE VERY TAIL END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED BEFORE NOON
OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SEA FOG OFFSHORE MAY ADVECT ONSHORE
BY MID MORNING YET SHOULD DISSIPATE DRG THE AFTN. BRIEF VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD
SHOWERS PRIMARILY DRG THE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ 

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT AN 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS/
MIDWEST DRG THE PERIOD WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACRS THE
CWA TONIGHT/EARLY WED. THE FIRST SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD
FRONT ACRS THE CWA BY EARLY WED WHILE THE SECOND SYSTEM WL
CONTRIBUTE TO ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MSTR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER FORCING
SHOULD RESULT IN PCPN TONIGHT/EARLY WED. NAM SOUNDINGS/UPPER
FORCING SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS PSBL YET NOT SURE
REGARDING THUNDER. WL SIMPLY FCST ISOLD SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. OWING TO THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT COOLER MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...11-3.9 MIRCRON IMAGERY/PLATFORM DATA SUGGEST DENSE SEA FOG 
OVER AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH 
THE LAPS GENERATED SOUNDINGS (NEAR SFC SATURATION/DRY ALOFT.) ISSUED 
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 15Z (BASED ON THE 
DRIER NAM.) ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY. OWING TO THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AFTER FROPA...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
SETTING UP A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON 
THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK TO 
MODERATE UPGLIDE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE 
WEEK. THERE IS NOT REALLY ONE TIME PERIOD TO REALLY HONE IN ON AT 
THIS TIME...BUT WILL SEE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE 
COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD...AND WITH AN UNEXPECTED TURN OF EVENTS...THEY HAVE CONVERGED 
ON THE SOLUTION THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING. THUS...HAVE 
REMOVED FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY. CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE 
A DRY LINE PUSHING THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...IN A 
SIMILAR MANNER TO YESTERDAYS FRONT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM 
BACK INTO THE 90S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THERE 
ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT...BUT NOTHING 
LIKE 24 HOURS AGO. ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS PUSH FRONT THROUGH IN 
THE MORNING...WITH GFS LAGGING BACK ABOUT 6 HOURS. COULD BE SOME 
QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE 
ON THAT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  77  59  81  67  /  20  20  10  20  20 
VICTORIA          59  76  53  77  64  /  20  20  10  20  20 
LAREDO            64  78  60  86  68  /  10  20  10  10  10 
ALICE             65  78  56  82  65  /  20  20  10  20  20 
ROCKPORT          64  74  61  75  67  /  20  20  10  20  20 
COTULLA           63  75  56  84  64  /  10  20  10  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        64  77  56  81  66  /  20  20  10  20  20 
NAVY CORPUS       66  73  64  78  67  /  20  20  10  20  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION