879 FXUS63 KLBF 191758 AAA AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1258 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. CLOUDS CLEARED THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE AXIS FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. RADAR WAS PICKING UP SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AMONG THIS BAND OF CLOUDS...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY SO EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS HITTING THE GROUND. THERE IS A WEAK PV ANOMALY OVER MONTANA THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA LATER TODAY. SOME ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY...ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPS RATES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR THE HIGHS ALREADY TODAY IN SOME AREAS SO DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOO MUCH MORE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 FOR TODAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY...ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 26 AND INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH MID MORNING. RADAR RETURNS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE INVOF OF THIS FRONTO BAND...BUT SO FAR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW DID OCCUR HERE AT THE OFFICE EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND WAS BRIEF WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 6SM...AND THIS WAS UNDER 20 TO 30 DBZ ECHOES. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS TO THE WEST AND THE EVIDENCE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING...BELIEVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE WARRANTED HERE...AND HAVE ADDED THE MENTION TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL ATTEMPT TO CLEAR LATER TODAY...AS THE FRONTO BAND SHIFTS EAST INTO SERN NEBRASKA/NERN KS. WINDS TODAY WILL FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUITE DRY BELOW 800 MB...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP MAY FALL AS VIRGA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 40 PERCENT DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. AGAIN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE. COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE 30S AND 40S. ON FRIDAY...ALL AREAS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION THIS WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEM ARE NOW INDICATING THIS SCENARIO...AND ARE ACTUALLY BOTH SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DETAILS. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND HAVE THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE UPPER RIDGING. THIS STILL REMAINS A DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...AND JUST HOW THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOW ALSO INDICATING SOME SORT OF CLOSED SYSTEM. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. WILL INCREASE POPS JUST A LITTLE INTO THE LOW CHANCE /30 PERCENT/ RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY WON/T GET CARRIED AWAY AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONCERNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS THE WINDS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTH BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BROOKS SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...BROOKS