991 FXUS63 KICT 191731 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HRS WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FLOATING OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH. JAKUB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SHORT TERM... AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A HARD FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 EXPECTED. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/H7 WAA REGIME. MAINTAINED LOW POPS WEIGHTED IN THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AND THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO TREND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR H8 WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN PARTIAL MELTING OF ICE ENTERING THE COLUMN...THEREFORE INTRODUCED A RAIN/SLEET MIX WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN 3C WHILE EXPANDING THE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THE MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME MAINTAINING MID POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MIXED PHASE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. LONG TERM... FRIDAY-MONDAY...AFTER A BRIEF LULL FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LARGER SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE PLAINS SAT-SUN. THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS BUT PHASE/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. IN ADDITION...DPROG/DT CONTINUES TO SHOW POOR-RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN BOTH MODELS. THE NCEP/ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OFFER LITTLE HELP WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS SO MAINTAINED MID POPS FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITHIN THE MEAN LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH MIDDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT RSL/SLN/CNU TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. JMC FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALLOWING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX TO REACH THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 30 52 36 39 / 10 0 40 60 HUTCHINSON 22 50 35 38 / 10 0 40 50 NEWTON 26 48 33 38 / 10 0 30 60 ELDORADO 29 50 34 38 / 10 0 20 70 WINFIELD-KWLD 33 53 38 41 / 10 0 30 70 RUSSELL 21 50 33 38 / 10 10 30 50 GREAT BEND 23 51 35 38 / 10 10 40 50 SALINA 22 49 34 38 / 10 0 20 60 MCPHERSON 25 49 34 38 / 10 0 30 60 COFFEYVILLE 33 52 35 38 / 10 0 10 90 CHANUTE 30 50 32 38 / 10 0 10 90 IOLA 29 48 31 38 / 10 0 10 90 PARSONS-KPPF 32 50 34 38 / 10 0 10 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$