996 FXUS61 KCLE 191726 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 126 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...INCREASED THE POPS OVER NW PA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS IN LINE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FOR CURRENT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS. COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHANGE ANY REMAINING PATCHY DRIZZLE TO SNOW FLURRIES THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD ONLY JUST BE DROPPING TO THE FREEZING POINT AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE PATCHY DZ HAS BEEN HANGING ON THE LONGEST SO DON'T SEE A PROBLEM WITH FREEZING ON THE ROADWAYS OCCURRING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/W'S WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND DRAG SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR MORNING FLURRIES TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE SNOWBELT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS MOST PLACES. COLD ADVECTION AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BASED ON 850 MB WINDS OF 40 KNOTS THINK MOST PEAK GUSTS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 40 MPH SO PLAN TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. INITIAL WETNESS OF GROUND AND SNOW SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING OF SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS OUT TONIGHT AND DOES NOT RETURN UNTIL WED EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES LATER TONIGHT INTO WED. THUS LAKE EFFECT SHSN SHOULD STAY IN CHECK WITH ACCUMULATION TONIGHT MOSTLY 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ONLY ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES ON WED. RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU AND COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED SHSN. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ACCUMULATION TO STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOCATIONS SO PLAN FOR NOW IS TO EXPECT THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY CLOSER TO EVENT TIME. UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE START TO SHIFT EAST THU NIGHT THRU FRI AND 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE. LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI SO SHOULD BE MOSTLY FLURRIES BY FRI NIGHT. AT BEST...TEMPS TO ONLY MODERATE A FEW DEGREES FOR FRI...THUS STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WHICH USUALLY TERMINATES THE LAKE EFFECT AS THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE. WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ON SATURDAY SINCE THERE IS ALREADY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO TREND THE SATURDAY FORECAST DRY. IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS STILL FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH AND SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE BIG SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN BUT WE ONLY SEE THE 00Z RUN THROUGH MON 00Z 25 MAR (SUNDAY). CHANCES ARE THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND THE DRIER AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH. WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE CURRENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DIURNAL AND WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND SCATTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2.5 TO 3.5 KFT. ERI WILL SEE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY BELOW 1 MILE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 250-260 DEGREES ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. .OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF NON-VFR WILL BE THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. && .MARINE... THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND THE LONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FETCH AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY PERIOD ON THE LAKE. WILL PROBABLY APPROACH 35 KNOT GALES TODAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING TO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL RESULT IN LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE ERIE...DEVELOPING THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND WILL POST A LOW WATER ADVISORY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FREEZING SPRAY BUT WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STARTING TO RISE AND THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING SPRAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH WORK WEEK. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE FLOW WILL VEER MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>144- 162>164. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...KOSARIK AVIATION...GARNET MARINE...KOSARIK