673 FXUS61 KCTP 191643 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1243 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE EXPECTED UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS THE COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND...WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO A PRETTY TYPICAL COLD SEASON NW FLOW PATTERN WHERE WE WILL HAVE PLENTIFUL STRATOCU CEILINGS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE NW TO LIKELY AS COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL KEEP IN AND OUT SNOW SHOWERS A THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LESS LIKELY THE FURTHER SOUTH WE GET FROM THE LAKES BUT PARTS OF THE LAURELS COULD SEE A FRESH DUSTING TO A COATING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...SOME 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME CHILLY NW FLOW IS IN STORE FOR WED WITH THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THRU THE FLOW. THIS MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS A BIT OVER THE NW...BUT THE FLOW BEING OUT OF CANADA IS VERY DRY TO BEGIN WITH SO PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ARE NOT PROMISING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE NW TO MID 40S OVER THE SE. STILL RUNNING ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER TROFFING OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH FAST...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS A RESULT. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY ENERGETIC...BUT AGAIN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING PA. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM EXITS. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT REGIONS ON PERSISTING NWRLY FLOW. WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NRLY BY FRI FURTHER REDUCING COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN THE GFS AND EC...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AFFECTS FAR FROM PA. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COMPLEX LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SOLIDIFY INTO A SINGLE LOW OFF THE NJ COAST AND HEAD TWD SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP ESTABLISH A GUSTY NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHICH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS FROM JOHNSTOWN NORTHWARD. EXPECT MVFR...OCNL IFR FROM JST-BFD WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS BEING THE MAIN CULPRIT IN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE CEILINGS IN THE 1500-3500' RANGE WILL PREDOMINATE. ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILINGS MAINLY ABOVE 3000' WILL BE THE RULE...WITH SKIES BEING SCT-BKN OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WEST FLOW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF DRYING OUT. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW. MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WEST. MAINLY VFR CENTRAL AND SE. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE