927 FXUS64 KLUB 191125 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 625 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .AVIATION... VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AS SURFACE RIDGING SETS IN DURING THE DAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS LATER TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MIDDAY INTO EVENING. RMCQUEEN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013/ SHORT TERM... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. COOLER NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO EARLY EVENING...VALIDATING COOLER TEMPERATURES TRENDED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK NORTHERLY CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. WE DROPPED MINIMUMS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY. RMCQUEEN LONG TERM... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UPCOMING FOR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKED. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WEST TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGION CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. MORNING PRECIPITATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN SEEN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A STRAIGHT LINE 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET. MOST OF THE LIFT FROM THIS JET APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE. THIS MAY CREATE STRONG VIRGA SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. FURTHERMORE...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERNING MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES. THE NAM/ECM ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT OUT. ADDITIONALLY...THIS INITIAL FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING VERY COLD AIR. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH TOO GREAT AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO SCANT IN THE MODELS TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR THAN SEEN IN A LONG WHILE. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEN TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS COLD AIR...HOWEVER THE ECM HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. FORECAST NUMBERS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW THE MEX NUMBERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. JDV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 60 33 63 42 80 / 0 0 0 10 10 TULIA 60 33 64 46 77 / 0 0 0 10 10 PLAINVIEW 61 34 64 47 80 / 0 0 10 10 10 LEVELLAND 64 36 64 47 83 / 0 0 10 10 10 LUBBOCK 63 36 65 48 81 / 0 0 10 10 10 DENVER CITY 69 39 64 47 85 / 0 0 10 10 10 BROWNFIELD 66 37 65 48 85 / 0 0 10 10 10 CHILDRESS 65 36 66 48 80 / 0 0 10 20 20 SPUR 65 40 67 49 83 / 0 0 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 69 42 69 50 85 / 0 10 10 10 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/05