571 FXUS61 KLWX 190758 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 358 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF VIRGINIA WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... WE'VE ISSUED A FZRA ADVSRY FOR THE XTRM NW CRNR OF THE FCST AREA. RW ARE MOVG INTO THE RGN AHD OF THE CD FNT. W/ TEMPS STILL HOVERING ARND FRZG FELT THIS WAS THE BEST PLAN OF ACTION. AS I WROTE ERLR (PAST COUPLE OF DAYS) MDLS HV ALWAYS HAD A TERRIBLE TIME W/ THE EROSION OF CAD...AND TDA/TNG IS NO XCPT. 03Z AFC ANLYS SHOWED VA ON THE N SIDE OF A WRM FNT WHICH STRETCHED FM DELMARVA INTO NRN NC AND THEN N THRU W.V. A CD FNT WAS QUICKLY BEHIND IT...AND IS NOW INTO WRN PA/ACROSS CENTRAL W.V. AS A RESULT THE SCOURING OF THE CAD SHOULD BEGIN IN NEXT FEW HRS ON E SIDE OF THE MTNS. ISOLD RW COULD OCCUR THRU ABT 8 AM. AFTRWARDS THE NEXT CONCERN WL BE WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. MAR IS OFTEN A WINDY MONTH. TDA SHOULD SEE FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE 20S. HIGHS IN THE 50S E OF THE BLUE RDG...40S W. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN TNGT. SKIES WL BE GNRLY CLR W/ LOWS IN THE 20S AND L30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPR LOW PERSISTS OVER THE NERN STATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED UPR TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE VORT LOBE LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER SRN VA...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS /MAINLY SNOW...RAIN PERHAPS ON THE WATERS/ FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. QUICK PASSAGE WITH ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ON THE AXIS/VORT MAX. LIGHT SNOW ACCUM /ONE OR TWO TENTHS INCH/ POSSIBLE DESPITE WEDNESDAY BEING QUITE WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE CWA /UPR 40S NRN HALF/. COOLER THURSDAY WITH CAA IN NWLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AIRMASS MODIFIES IN THE ASTRONOMICAL SPRING SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S ON FRIDAY /PERHAPS LOW 50S FOR KCHO AND VICINITY/. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEATHER THEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES /THOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW THE NORMALS OF MID 30S AND UPR 50S/. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH STATES TO SOMEWHERE ON THE CENTRAL EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF IS JUST COMING IN AND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT SOUTH OF LWX /TO THE CAROLINA COAST/ WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH /MID-ATLANTIC/. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS VERY LATE SEASON SYSTEM. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THIS WINTER ACTIVE MONTH COULD CONTINUE...THOUGH /AS ALWAYS/ MANY INGREDIENTS WOULD HAVE TO COME IN LINE FOR THIS TO BE A WIDESPREAD SNOWY EVENT AND THIS IS REALLY AGAINST THE CLOCK SEASONALLY SPEAKING. CONTINUED CHANCES POPS FOR AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CIGS WL BE LOW THRU SUNRISE - INTO LIFR CAT. A CD FNT WL PASS THRU THE TERMINALS THIS MRNG WHICH WL CAUSE CIGS/VSBY TO IMPRV QUICKLY...BUT CAUSE AFTN WINDS TO GUST INTO THE M20S. NO PROBS AT ANY TAF SITE OVRNGT. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH FROM DC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NWLY FLOW THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TDA AS A CD FNT MOVES THRU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. SCA CONTS TNGT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. WEST FLOW GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY...EXPANDED SCA /AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT RETRACTION TO LARGE WATERS/ FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY NWLY FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE AN SCA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003- 501-502. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ028. WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-503-504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-536-537-539>541-543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-535-538-542. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-535-538-542. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BAJ