614 
FXPQ60 PGUM 190602 AAA
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST TUE MAR 19 2013

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE MARIANAS ON MONDAY HAS
MOSTLY MOVED OFF TO THE WEST...BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POPPING EAST OF GUAM AND ROTA WHILE
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND UKMET BOTH HINT AT LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR GUAM AND
ROTA THIS EVENING...AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS POINT IN THE SAME
DIRECTION. THUS...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR GUAM/ROTA THIS
EVENING...BUT NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN. THINGS
SHOULD DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE BACK TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NORTH SWELL PETERS
OUT AND EAST SWELL DROPS ABOUT 2 FEET OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
RIP RISK COULD DROP TO LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES BETWEEN 3N TO 8N FROM KOSRAE 
EASTWARD PAST MAJURO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF MAJURO...RESULTING IN SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MARSHALLS...FROM MAJURO SOUTHWARD. THIS 
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS 
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO KOSRAE THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM MAJURO...EXPECT 
DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO MAJURO LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT OVER KOSRAE THURSDAY 
AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS 
AND A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT KOSRAE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND HOWEVER...AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS IN THE AREA. FOR 
POHNPEI...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. 
POHNPEI WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVES 
THROUGH...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING SATURDAY 
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS THE WEAK CIRCULATION HAS RELOCATED 
TO SOUTH OF YAP...NEAR 4N138E. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM 
THE CIRCULATION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO EAST OF THE TROUGH AND 
CIRCULATION IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP TO SOUTH OF CHUUK. CONVECTION 
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT CHUUK...SLOWLY CLEARING TOWARD MORNING AS 
THE TROUGH AND CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD. DRIER 
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE AT CHUUK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN TO YAP 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING THURSDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NEARBY TO KEEP YAP MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. KOROR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY ISOLATED 
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE