350 FXUS64 KAMA 190432 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1132 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15KT THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2013/ DISCUSSION... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO SEND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET UP INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN UNDER A TROUGH ALOFT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH AND IT WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR...SO BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FROZEN THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LINGERED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS LAST RUN...BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT IS PROGGED RIGHT NOW. AT THIS TIME...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT...1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THESE AREAS. FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH PREVAIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN GO UP FOR THE PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 14/08