862 FXUS61 KCTP 190356 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1156 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL OVER ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY CHANGING ANY LINGERING RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. IN FACT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE PRECIP HAS CHANGED FROM FROZEN TO LIQUID OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE AT 03Z... ROUGHLY FROM IPT NORTH AND EAST. NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALL NEAR TERM MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ANY ADDITIONAL QPF OVERNIGHT WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS. AND EVEN THEN...PTYPES MAY END UP AS PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. THUS... HAVE DOWNGRADED WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...TEMPS CURRENTLY NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT THE METAR OBS STATIONS. AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IF SUFFICIENT WARMING PLAYS OUT THERE. AT LEAST POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR REMAIN OVR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH EARLY TUE AM. ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE SCOURED OUT ARND A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL RETURN TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT...POTENTIALLY CHANGING ANY LIGHT LINGERING RAIN/FZRA BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS OVR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS NR DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL TRANSITION INTO A NEW SECONDARY SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NJ COAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...STRONG AND DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORE NOTABLE MAY BE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WIND...WHICH SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE L30S OVER THE NW...TO NEAR 50 IN THE SE WILL BE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAYS IF THE ASTRONOMICAL WINTER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AGAIN TODAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER TROFFING OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH FAST...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN U.S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS A RESULT. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGHLY ENERGETIC...BUT AGAIN THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING PA. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM EXITS. SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AFFECTING MOSTLY THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT REGIONS ON PERSISTING NWRLY FLOW. WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NRLY BY FRI FURTHER REDUCING COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IN THE GFS AND EC...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND. TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AFFECTS FAR FROM PA. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BEEN DOING UPDATES AS NEEDED THIS EVENING. SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MIXED AREA OF SNOW STILL TO THE EAST...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA SHORTLY. RADAR SHOWS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST...BUT RADAR RETURNS AND OBS INDICATE THIS IS MORE OF A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN. THUS HAVE MIX IN MOST OF THE TAFS. FOR THE SE... JUST WENT WITH FOG BY LATE EVENING...AS PRECIPITATION MAY JUST CUT OFF BY THEN. HARD TO SEE THINGS WARMING UP MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS WEAKEN... AND COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER. THE COMPLEX LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SOLIDIFY INTO A SINGLE LOW OFF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE LOCAL AREA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW. WESTERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. OUTLOOK... WED-SAT...GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW. MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WEST. MAINLY VFR SE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN