470 FXUS61 KCLE 190138 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 938 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MARKS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THIS FRONT. RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMES BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DUE IN AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ERIE CO PA IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE ON TIME...WITH WINDS CONTINUING CLOSE TO 46 MPH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. AS SOON AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SW...GUSTS WILL BE LESS. OVERALL AIRMASS DRYING OUT BUT SOME MODELS HINTING AT LOW CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE JUST FLURRIES MENTIONED BEFORE MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WILL HAVE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND ON IN INTENSITY MAINLY IN THE PRIMARY SNOW BELT WITH A WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED A LAKE EFFECT WARNING OR ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE MORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE GETS NEAR 15 TO 16C. THE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THAT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY OR WARNING...SO DON'T WANT TO OVER DO A HEADLINE FOR DAYS...WHEN IT WE ONLY NEED A HEADLINE LATER IN THE WEEK. HAVE INCREASED THE GUSTS FOR TUESDAY. COULD SEE A WINDOW OF GUSTS THAT MAY GET NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT MENTIONED GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS A LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MOSTLY OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. BY SUNDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...SO THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST 3 TO 6 HOURS OF THE TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS BETWEEN KFDY AND KMFD. ANY REMAINING DRIZZLE MAY SWITCH OVER TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE EAST AFTER 06Z. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEY WILL INCREASE. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30 KNOTS AT MOST SITES. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR A GOOD BET ACROSS THE WEST. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. .OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THU...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...BUT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TOMORROW...BUT A 35 KNOT GALE IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE FOR WED BUT SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THU NIGHT. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...DJB