470 
FNUS73 KLSX 151425
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LONG RIDGE...MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
925 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 15. 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TO SURGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S 
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  A COLD FRONT WILL 
THEN SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD ALSO
MOVE THROUGH DRY.  ONCE THE FRONT GETS TO OUR SOUTH...IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WAVES 
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS ALONG IT AND GENERATE AREAS OF RAIN.  
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING 
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. 


.REST OF TODAY...

TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 75. 
RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. 
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    USING A 0.3 ADJUSTMENT. 
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT 
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WIND 7 TO 10 
                    MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AT IGNITION...3000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING. 
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 20 MPH. 
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (7950 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING. 

.TONIGHT...

TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. 
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. 
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST WIND 3 TO 4 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING 
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 2 MPH LATE...USING
                    A 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR. 
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 9 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 
                    18 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST 
                    AROUND 7 MPH LATE. 
HAINES INDEX........N/A. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A. 
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A. 
VENTILATION RATE....N/A. 

.SATURDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........MAX 52. 
RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT. 
WIND...EYE LEVEL....NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 2 MPH EARLY IN THE 
                    MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 3 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...USING A 0.3
                    ADJUSTMENT FACTOR. 
WIND...20 FT........NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE 
                    MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7 TO 9 MPH IN THE 
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING. 
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 14 MPH. 
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (4917 M^2/S) AT MAX HEATING. 

$$

FORECASTER...TES
REQUESTED BY...MARK JOHANSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130315.LONGR.01/LSX