123 FXUS63 KTOP 150839 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 339 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013 .DISCUSSION... 0Z DATA ANALYSIS SHOWED MODERATE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. 850MB TEMPS HAD REACHED AROUND 10C AT NEARBY LOCATIONS...WITH HIGH PLAINS STATIONS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. 07Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED BROAD LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW RESULTING. THE UPSTREAM 850MB TEMPS WILL BE USHERED EAST WITH 850-925MB LEVELS SOME 4-6C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER DOES LOOK A BIT MORE PREVALENT BUT BETTER MIXING IS LIKELY. HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA WHICH PUTS TOPEKA IN THE RECORD VICINITY. MODEL DEWPOINTS AGAIN APPEAR ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND WITH THE DEEP MIXING THE SETUP FOR THEM FALLING RATHER QUICKLY IS IN PLACE...INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. RED FLAG LEVELS FOR BOTH WINDS AND HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA VALUES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. COLD AIR THEN SURGES SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS ENDING. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THROUGHOUT SATURDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BUT SATURATION INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS DO BECOME RATHER DIFFERENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BY THIS TIME...WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST ASTRAY...THOUGH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED. WITH MUCH OF THE STRONGER FORCING BEING USED TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY...HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE VERY UNLIKELY...BUT SOME CONCERN FOR WINTRY PRECIP REMAINS FOR MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS WITH CONTINUED NORTH TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SATURATION GETTING NEARLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. THIS WAVE PASSES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK LIKELY LATE SUNDAY UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH AGAIN MINOR AMOUNTS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THE BULK OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NOT FAR TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE THE LATE WEEKEND WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES MAY MODIFY A BIT BUT SHOULD BE NEAR MID MARCH NORMALS. 65 && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TAFS SITES AFTER 00Z SAT. GARGAN && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$