739 
FXUS64 KMEG 140205
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT WED MAR 13 2013

.UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. MORNING LOWS MAY BE AS MUCH AS 15-20DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED MAR 13 2013/ 

SYNOPSIS... ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE IS ABUNDANT...EXCEPT FOR SOME
CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW AVERAGE.

 BELLES

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN ACROSS THE REGION. ON THURSDAY RETURN FLOW BEGINS WITH A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF THE FLOW WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO MOISTEN. EXPECT INCREASING DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE REGION.

HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY FOR
ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF AND EVERYONE SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
GFS WHICH IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL MOVING THE FRONT SOUTH.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT WHICH MAKES TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL FORECASTING A BIT
TRICKY. HAVE TRIED TO COMPROMISE THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL DAY FOR ACTIVE WEATHER IS MONDAY.  A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY.  MODELS ARE STILL 
DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE 
SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  THE GFS DOES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL 
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY 
EVENING...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS NOT AS BULLISH. FOR NOW THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW WITH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

THEREAFTER HAVE GONE THE ECMWF WHICH CLEARS THE REGION OUT AND 
BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE GFS SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE SO
WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY RAINFALL OVER THIS TIME FOR DAY 6 AND 7.

 BELLES

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY GUSTS SOME IN
THE KJBR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  34  65  48  73 /   0  10   0   0 
MKL  24  61  41  71 /   0  10   0   0 
JBR  31  63  44  72 /   0  10   0   0 
TUP  28  62  43  73 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$