195 
FXUS62 KKEY 131437
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1040 AM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN 
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTH NEAR 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S.   

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL 
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS STABLE 
AND MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) 
VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC 
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET THIS EVENING...PWAT 
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR 
THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. THE PROJECTED INVASION 
OF THIS VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES OF 
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF      
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE WESTERN      
PORTION OF HAWK CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTH 
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY 
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE 
REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY 
NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 14/15Z...LOW LEVEL CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT AT THE ISLAND 
TERMINALS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THOUGH THE PERIOD. 
NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AT EYW 
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL MAKE MTH WINDS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND 
COMPLEX. AFTER A DAYTIME LULL...WINDS SHOULD SURGE AFTER NIGHTFALL 
TONIGHT TO A SIMILAR MAGNITUDE AS EYW. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1889...2.32 INCHES OF RAIN 
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL 
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 13TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 124 
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871. 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
     THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE WESTERN 
     PORTION OF HAWK CHANNEL...GMZ032>034-043-044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS 
AVIATION.............................MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

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