960 FXUS63 KFGF 121952 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 252 PM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013 .SHORT TERM... PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PCPN AND THE TEMP CURVE FOR WED NIGHT WHICH COULD SUPPORT MIXED PCPN. FOR NOW WILL USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM CONTINUITY. TONIGHT...SEEING QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING NOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA WITH A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM KHCO DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST ND. THERE IS SOME THIN CIRRUS BACKING UP INTO THE EASTERN FA BUT OVERALL NOT A WHOLE LOT. TREND TONIGHT SHOULD BE FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS BUT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GO. GETTING SOME BREEZY WINDS DOWN THE VALLEY BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO TREND DOWN THIS EVENING. QUESTION IS THEN HOW COLD TO GO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS CAME IN SHOWING A LOW OF -10F AT KGFK AND -8F AT KDVL. THIS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TOO COLD SO TRENDED WARMER THAN THIS FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FAST THINGS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND HOW FAST WINDS DROP OFF. WED-FRI...GENERALLY EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON WED WITH TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE. WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BY WED NIGHT WITH TEMPS A QUESTION. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY EVENING FALL BUT THEN RISING OR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF WARM AIR ALOFT BUT SFC WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING TOO STRONG. THEREFORE MAY NOT GET MUCH WARMING AT THE SFC BUT COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME MIXED PCPN POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE ABOUT A 12 HOUR BREAK AND THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THU NIGHT. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR FA BUT AGAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. THE 12Z MODELS ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS WOULD GIVE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA THE MOST SNOW WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD GIVE IT TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. AT THIS POINT JUST INCREASED PCPN CHANCES AND WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE. COULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WHEREVER THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW TRACKS THROUGH. .LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)... 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AS STORM DEPARTS THEN HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO NE ND/NRN MN SAT-SAT BUT SOUTHWESTERN FCST AREA ON FRINGE OF HIGH MAY STILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA MON AFTN THEN EAST TUES. NRN PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH BUT THE DEGREE OF IMPACT IN REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL IS QUESTIONABLE AS RIGHT NOW HEAVIEST QPF STAYS IN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. && .AVIATION... NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH THE SETTING SUN. AREAS OF LEFT OVER STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL LEAVING MOST OF THE NIGHT BEYOND 00Z WITH SOME MOSTLY SCATTERED CIRRUS AND DECREASING WIND. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 12Z-15Z WED WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ GODON/RIDDLE