664 FXUS64 KOHX 120828 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2013 .DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING WITH WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES NOW CLEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE AND WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY UNDER MOS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT FROM MOS AND WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. COOLER WEATHER ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NORTHWEST FLOW H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT QPF GENERATED BY ALL GUIDANCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ATTM FOR SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID...BUT WILL MONITOR AS BL TEMPS ON THE PLATEAU COULD BE MARGINAL FOR A BIT OF A WINTRY MIX. MUCH WARMER TEMPS ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND STALL IN OR JUST NORTH OF THE MID STATE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS/POPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE BOUNDARY ENDS UP...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CONTINUE TO ONLY INDICATE LOW POPS ATTM. BIG DIFFERENCES EMERGE BY MONDAY WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A POTENT SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BUT GFS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR PREVIOUS VALUES AND ABOVE MEX NUMBERS...WITH CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 53 32 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 CLARKSVILLE 53 30 48 27 / 0 0 0 0 CROSSVILLE 48 28 41 24 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBIA 54 33 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 LAWRENCEBURG 55 33 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 WAVERLY 54 30 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHAMBURGER