488 FXUS63 KICT 110454 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1154 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WINDS RELAX WITH THE DEPARTING SFC LOW. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KICT BETWEEN 08-09Z BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE KCNU AREA BY AROUND 12Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. MWM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/ UPDATE... WITH SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND WINDS ARE NO LONGER REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLY. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOVER IN THE UPPER 20S...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH CLEARING REMAINS LOW WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. MWM AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AND MAINTAINED MVFR AT KICT-KSLN THROUGH 06-09Z BEFORE VFR RETURNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST BUT SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. FURTHER EAST...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE MIXING OUT BY AROUND 18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. MWM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: DEPARTING WINTER STORM THIS EVENING...WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THINKING LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLIER THAN ITS ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF 7 PM. WILL HANDLE THE WIND ADVISORY THE SAME WAY. A FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND DEWPOINTS FALL...ALTHOUGH MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO BAD. THINKING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THESE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTH IN WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S-50S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEST/STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...A STEADY WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS WESTERN CONUS MID/UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INCREASING THICKNESSES...THINKING HIGHS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S-70S. ADK AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT KICT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ODDS AT KCNU TOO LOW MENTION. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO VFR CONDITION AND DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE. HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 21 48 30 53 / 10 0 10 10 HUTCHINSON 19 47 29 51 / 10 0 10 10 NEWTON 20 43 30 50 / 10 0 10 10 ELDORADO 21 44 30 51 / 10 0 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 22 47 30 54 / 10 0 10 10 RUSSELL 17 49 28 50 / 10 0 10 10 GREAT BEND 18 49 28 50 / 10 0 10 10 SALINA 18 45 28 50 / 10 0 10 10 MCPHERSON 19 45 29 50 / 10 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 25 46 30 54 / 10 0 0 10 CHANUTE 23 44 29 52 / 10 0 0 10 IOLA 23 43 29 51 / 10 0 0 10 PARSONS-KPPF 24 44 28 53 / 10 0 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$