967 FGUS73 KGLD 071325 ESFGLD COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199- 203-NEC057-087-145-191200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 625 AM MST THU MARCH 7 2013 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2... THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA (HSA) TO REFER TO MAJOR RIVERS LOCATED - IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO - IN DUNDY...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA - IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...GOVE... GRAHAM...AND NORTON COUNTIES. THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE - THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER - THE REPUBLICAN RIVER - BEAVER...SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS - SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER - THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 7 THROUGH MARCH 21 2013. OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE... SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GOODLAND HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM TWO WEEKS AGO. VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE HSA EXHIBITS THE WORST POSSIBLE DROUGHT CATEGORY (D4)- EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. VISIT THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR TO SEE THE PROGRESSION OF THIS DROUGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. (HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML)...CLICK ON THE ARCHIVE TAB. THE 8 TO 14 DAY NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK (SEE HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV) INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GOODLAND HSA. WATER LEVELS AT MOST AREA RESERVOIRS ARE LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO LAST YEAR'S LEVELS. MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 33 TO 71 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES. THESE INCLUDE KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE (49%) IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...ENDERS (36%) AND SWANSON (34%) RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HARRY STRUNK RESERVOIR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE CREEK IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS CURRENTLY AT 71 PERCENT OF ITS CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITY. HUGH BUTLER LAKE/RED WILLOW DAM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPOUND MINIMAL QUANTITIES OF WATER (21%) AS REMEDIAL CONSTRUCTION CONTINUES ON THE DAM STRUCTURE. ESTIMATED DATE FOR COMPLETION OF WORK IS NOVEMBER 2013. THE USBR ISSUES REGULAR UPDATES REGARDING RED WILLOW DAM AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS: HTTP://WWW.USBR.GOV/GP/NKAO/REDWILLOW/ GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SNOWPACK...BELOW AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTS NOT INDICATING ANY LONG TERM INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...A BELOW AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING IS DESIGNATED FOR THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 7 THROUGH MARCH 21, 2013. VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=GLD FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS. $$ SLOAN/BULLER