331 FXUS62 KFFC 061930 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 230 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY BENIGN. MIDLEVEL LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT SO THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST SO WINDS DO NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM OVERNIGHT...WHICH KEEPS TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT. THAT SAID THOUGH...TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS /AND ACTUALLY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS/...SO OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT DO NOT REACH FREEZING BUT NOT ENOUGH /AT LEAST WITH CURRENT THINKING/ TO EXCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OR GROUPS OF COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH SO AGAIN WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF...BUT A FREEZE WARNING MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOULD START TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING TOMORROW. TDP .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO NEXT WEEK/S STORM SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS PATTERN. OVERALL THERE IS NO NEW MODEL TRENDS TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND SIGNALING A FAIRLY QUICK RECOVERY TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THAT SYSTEM. 20 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013/ LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL HELP OUR MAX TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL PUT US NEAR CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO HIGHS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED ISNT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN BEFORE. HAVE GONE WITH THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WHICH DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY. WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY. 11 && AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LOW VFR CIGS 4-5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...GOING SCT AFTER ABOUT 20Z AND SKC THEREAFTER. EXPECT MID- LEVEL CLOUDINESS /15KFT/ DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NNW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTING TO 30KT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10KT AT ATL AND AROUND 5KT ELSEWHERE. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. TDP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 29 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 ATLANTA 31 57 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 27 53 30 60 / 5 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 29 56 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 32 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 30 56 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 MACON 30 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 30 56 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 29 58 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 VIDALIA 33 61 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB... BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE... CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA... CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY... DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH... GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL... HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON... JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR... LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER... MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON... NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH... PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY... SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT... TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN... TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN... WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX... WILKES...WILKINSON. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY... BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA... CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP... DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL... FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK... GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON... HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER... JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN... MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY... MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE... OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK... PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING... STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR... TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON... WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER... WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...TDP