472 FXUS64 KHUN 061639 AAB AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1039 AM CST WED MAR 6 2013 .UPDATE... MORNING UPDATE && .DISCUSSION... THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE AREA BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MORNING HAS BEEN OVERCAST AND CHILLY WITH TEMPS /AT 16Z/ IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. STARTED WITH ADDRESSING THE WINDS FOR THE DAY...THE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT ALLOW FOR THE MIXING EXPECTED FOR TODAY TO KEEP WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA. THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN BUT STILL INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BOARD AS IT EXPECTS TO LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE TRENDS SEEN THUS FAR THIS MORNING. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS AS WELL...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. JMS && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST WED MAR 6 2013/ FOR 12Z TAFS...LOW-VFR STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID-AFTN WITH CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE. HAVE INDICATED A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND BTWN 06/20-22Z...WITH SKC CONDS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH AIRPORT THRU LATE AFTN...WITH 18G28 KNOTS COMMON THRU 22Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AND VEER TO N/NNE EARLY THIS EVENING... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT NOCTURNAL BR/FG DEVELOPMENT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. 70/DD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST WED MAR 6 2013/ A FAR MORE QUIET WX PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY WED MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. POTENT UPPER LOW WORKING ITS WAY EWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC BASIN IS ALLOWING FOR SOME WRAP AROUND LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF TN LEADING INTO NRN MS/AL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ALSO STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW UNDERNEATH THE EXPANDING CLOUD DECK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST LATER TODAY...RELATED TO EXTENT AND LONGEVITY OF THE CLOUD DECK. LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH OR PUSH EWD LATER THIS MORNING OR MORE INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. IN ANY CASE...UNSEASONABLY COOL WX CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S. A CLEARING TREND SHOULD THEN BE UNDERWAY HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO THE MORNING HRS THU. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HRS TODAY...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES SOME ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH...A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NOON. QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL LIKE WX CONDITIONS ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES BUILDS EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS ARE XPCTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL READINGS THU/FRI AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BEFORE TRANSLATING EWD. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN STATES. WITH THE SFC HIGH EXITING TO THE E...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE STATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER STARTING SAT. THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TO ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN STATES BY THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A MORE SWLY FLOW PATTERN...AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EWD. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE PASSAGE OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS STILL HAS SCT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE W LATE SUN AND INTO MON. ISO EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN SCT SHOWERS ARE THEN XPCTED TO DEVELOP ON MON AS SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO CLR THE AREA TO THE E MON NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING TO THE SE REGION. 09 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.