400 FXUS61 KBTV 060221 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 921 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN A MARITIME NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MAINE AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS MOIST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY WILL INTERACT WITH A SEPARATE UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING PERIODS OF WET SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 921 PM EST TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS OF 900 PM. I ALSO OPTED TO LOWER POPS SUCH AS TO REMOVE EXPLICIT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS AS REALLY NO ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES HERE AND THERE...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW SETS IN ALOFT BUT WITH SUCH A PAUCITY IN COVERAGE FELT NO NEED TO CONTINUE MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS FROM HERE FORWARD. DESPITE CONTINUED AREAS OF CLR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES...HOURLY FCST TEMPS CONTINUE TO RUN VERY NEAR OBSERVED VALUES SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED IN THAT REGARD. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM EST TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE OVER LABRADOR AND DEEP SFC LOW MOVING EAST OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COASTLINE WEDNESDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE MOIST...LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONFINE ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ALONG THE GREEN MTNS AND THE NRN ADIRONDACKS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED (MAYBE A DUSTING-1" ACROSS THE MTNS). IN FACT...ANTICIPATE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTN HOURS ACROSS THE CT/CHAMPLAIN/AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT NE-E AT 5-10 MPH...BUT VALLEY CHANNELING IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED NELY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH IN KMSS VCNTY. LIKEWISE...SOME GAP FLOWS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED WINDS 15-25 MPH IN KRUT AREA. STAYED WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE MOS CONSENSUS...BUT SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY 36-38F. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WELL SOUTH OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z THURSDAY. WE/LL MAINTAIN LIGHT E-NE WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS...BUT DON/T FORESEE ANY MORE THAN 1" OR SO ACCUMULATION DURING WED NIGHT ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPR 20S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH OCEAN STORM IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...THE MOIST ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ULTIMATELY INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY 500MB VORT CROSSING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AXIS OF 700MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THU AFTN/NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW. USED A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF/09Z SREF/12Z GFS TO COME UP WITH QPF AMTS; EXCLUDED THE 12Z NAM WHICH APPEARS FAR TOO BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL MESOSCALE FORCING ACROSS NRN NY. THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF MODEL BLEND YIELDED HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS SEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT WITH 0.2 TO 0.4" QPF POSSIBLE (HIGHEST EAST FACING AREAS). BTV IS AROUND 0.17". APPLIED 10:1 SNOW RATIO GIVEN MARGINAL PBL TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...AND 12:1 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS YIELDED 1-2" SNOWFALL AT BTV...AND AN AXIS OF 2-4" OF SNOW FROM LAKE PLACID SEWD ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. LOCALLY AROUND 5" NEAR KILLINGTON AND SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. ALL IN ALL...NOT A MAJOR EVENT: PRIMARY ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE TOO BAD AT LOWER ELEVATIONS GIVEN WARM PAVEMENT/TEMPS 33-34F DURING SNOWFALL...BUT SECONDARY/MTN ROAD CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF LOW VSBY MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL SLOWDOWNS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. ANTICIPATE SOME SHADOWING IN THE FAR UPR CT VALLEY AND LOWER PASSUMPSIC VALLEY WITH SNOWFALL AMTS ONLY AROUND 1" LATE THU AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL MAINLY BE DRY THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. RIGHT ON THAT SYSTEMS HEELS WILL BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM BRINGING IT JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION...AND THE ECMWF BRINGS IT JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THESE TWO TRACKS WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LIQUID OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT AFTER ABOUT 04Z...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH 16Z...THEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST. NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO THE VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR SNOW WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES