086 FXUS61 KBTV 050601 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 101 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE MILD, REACHING INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT STAY TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE NORTH COUNTRY ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM EST TUESDAY...BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION EXTENDS NORTH OF THE BORDER...SO EXPECT ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ONLY NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/MIN TEMP DATASETS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED CURRENT FORECAST IN WITH THE LATEST 01Z LAMP DATA WHICH APPEARED TO CAPTURE CURRENT SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. WITH WARM THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINNING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL ESSENTIALLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FLUCTUATE A FEW DEGREES UP/DOWN HERE AND THERE THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT SCT/NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT PRIOR FCST HAD THIS COVERED WELL WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...STILL SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT LESS SO THAN TODAY. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MILDER AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPREADS A MORE MODERATE ATLANTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. DAILY SPECIFICS: TUESDAY: CONTINUED WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST TREND OF HAVING DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. A FEW LEFT OVER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AS LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE A STRAY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. ALL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AREA WIDE, WITH EVEN SOME LOW 40S IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SEEMS REASONABLE AS OUR AIR MASS WILL BE THAT EXPERIENCED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE -- WHICH AT LAST CHECK SHOWED A TEMPERATURE OF 38F IN CARIBOU! TUESDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET, THOUGH CONTINUED CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY: STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ONLY THING WE'LL SEE IS A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC, SO SUSPECT IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WITH THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW, WE'LL BE SEEING THE BETTER CHANCES STAY EAST OF HERE, THOUGH THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS MAY ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIP. THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY DRY AND WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY. ALSO BE EXPECTING SOME GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG, SO NOTHING MORE THAN 30MPH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S -- WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HIT THE MID 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THAT COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, BUT WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH AND FARTHER NORTH THAN BOTH THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, SO IT IS DISCOUNTED. 12Z EURO IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS EURO RUNS AND KEEPS IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR THIS REGION. COULD BE THE FAR OUTER FRINGES MAKING IT INTO THE RUTLAND/SPRINGFIELD AREAS, AND HAVE PAINTED IN SOME LOW (25-35%) CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS. ANYTHING THAT DOES ULTIMATELY FALL FROM THE SKY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD FROM THURSDAY RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FEEL VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL STICKING CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS WHICH BRINGS MORE PRECIP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. AFTER A CLOUDY DAY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO ADVECT RICH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEAST. BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHERE BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT VSBYS ON THE WHOLE WILL REMAIN MVFR/VFR. OUTLIER WILL BE KSLK WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AND TREND BACK TO MVFR AFTER 12Z. CHANCES FOR SNOW DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z AS COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR SNOW WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NASH NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS SHORT TERM...NASH LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...LAHIFF