272 FXUS63 KOAX 280525 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1125 PM CST WED FEB 27 2013 .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK. MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MVFR CEILINGS HAD MOVED INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 1000 FEET WITH MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY AROUND SUNRISE. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MILLER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST WED FEB 27 2013/ DISCUSSION... GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. OVERALL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE THRU THE 7 DAY PD. AT THIS POINT ONLY ACTIVE WX TO CONTEND WITH IS POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARE THE ISSUE. HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND NAM/GFS/ECM BEGIN SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT THERMAL ADVECTION DISCREPANCIES PER TIME- SERIES PROGS SAT/SAT NIGHT. BY LATE SAT AFTN THE NAM...AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ECM...APPEAR TO SHOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLOW ALOFT...TEND TO FAVOR WARM FRONT SCENARIO FROM THE NAM/ECM. ON SUN...PAC NW SHORTWAVE COMES ASHORE AND KICKS UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS EWD. BOTH GFS/ECM DEPICTING 100M HGT FALLS PRECEDING WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THRU SUN NIGHT. INCREASING DPVA THEN INDUCES SFC CYCLOGENESIS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. AGAIN...MAJOR DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY BY THEN WITH THE UPPER WAVE SFC REFLECTION. THE GFS EVOLVES INTO A DUEL SFC LOW STRUCTURE WHILE THE ECM PROGS AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID MS VLY TO THE SRN PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS... BOTH THE GFS AND ECM PRODUCE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE PCPN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE CMC AND DGEX ARE IN SUPPORT OF THIS AS WELL. GOING FCST HAS SMALL POPS ALREADY IN PLACE SUN NIGHT THRU TUES IN ANTICIPATION OF THE POSSIBLE PCPN EVENT. COULD BE A PCPN TYPE ISSUE INITIALLY WITH A RA/SN MIX TURNING TO ALL SN BY MON NIGHT. DRY THEN TUES NIGHT AND WED. DEE && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$