441 FXUS62 KMHX 240321 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1021 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1017 PM SAT...LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WIND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME SPOTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BUT THOSE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT MID TO LATE MORNING WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1330-1345M WITH ABUNDANT SUN YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60S...THOUGH MAINLY M50S OBX. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED N OF AREA SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S DEEP INLAND TO LOWER 40S BEACHES. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE CST MON WITH LOW LVLS REMAIN RATHER DRY. BOTH NAM/GFS NOW SIMILAR IN TIMING TO ECMWF KEEPING BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE S THRU MON AND WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER DARK. NE FLOW AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MON WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL GRAD INCREASE FROM S TO N LATER MON NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S. HAVE LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE LATE MON NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWER EXPECTED TUE...ESPCLY IN THE MORN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS JUST TO THE W AND LIFTS N. ALL AREAS LOOK TO GET IN WARM SECTOR TUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60 TO 65. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME TSRA TUE BUT INSTAB LOOKS MARGINAL THIS FAR OUT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY AGAIN EXCEED AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. WED WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH WRLY FLOW WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE N...HIGHS UPR M50S TO AROUND 60 MOST AREAS. UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. SHUD SEE A SERIES OF MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SOURCES IN THE OVERALL WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL COOLDOWN AS POST FRONTAL CAA SETS IN. HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S THU WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FRI AND SAT. LOWS LIKELY AT OR BLO FREEZING INLAND BOTH THU AND FRI NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/ AS OF 628 PM SAT...MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE THIS LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH CONTINUING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLE AND AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST AND STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN IN GA AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA TAFS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS KEEPING CIGS/VIS AT IFR/LIFR. UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AFTER SUNRISE ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR BY NOON. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT VFR TO CONT SUN NIGHT AND MON AS HIGH PRES CROSSES TO THE N. SUB-VFR THRESHOLDS LIKELY LATER MON NIGHT AND CONT MUCH OF TUE AS LOW PRES APPROACHES FORM THE SW AND PASSES TO THE W. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THU. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1020 PM SAT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS DECREASING SLOWLY. MAY SEE WIND SURGE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY IN THE SCA CRITERIA RANGE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH DEPARTING BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE WATERS MID MORNING. WIND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY MIDDAY AND REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING LOW RPESSURE SYSTEM. SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN AS INFLUENCE OF SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WINDS VEER TO THE N/NE SUN NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MON MORN AS GRDNT GETS PINCHED A BIT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT MON AFTN AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES CLOSER. SE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO SOLID 20 KTS OR SO LATER MON NIGHT AS HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTY SE TO S WINDS TUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ON WARM FRONT TO THE W AND LIFTS TO THE NE. WSW WINDS DECREASE GRAD WED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SEAS WILL CONT AT MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT SUN INTO MON...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/NRN WTRS. AS SE WINDS INCREASE MON NIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET...THEN PEAK AT 8 TO 11 FEET TUE WITH THE GUSTY SE TO S WINDS. WSW/WNW WINDS WILL CONT 15 TO 20 KTS THRU THURSDAY...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LVLS NRN WTRS BUT LINGER 6+ FT OUTER SRN/CNTRL WTRS THRU THURSDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...CGG SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...CGG/SK MARINE...CGG/SK