960 FXUS64 KJAN 221014 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 410 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2013 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HINDER WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE COME IN COOLER AND WETTER FOR TODAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN FOR THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS THE STALLING COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED JUST SOUTH NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE RAIN WILL MAKE A RETURN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A COOL DRY NORTH WIND TODAY BUT OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN BACK OVER OUR CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE GONE LOWER THAN THE GFS POPS FOR OUR DELTA REGION TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PWS GOT KNOCKED DOWN BELOW AND INCH BUT MODELS AGREE THAT PWS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AREA SAW LITTLE RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS RECOVERED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE WAVE AND DISTURBANCE SHIFT EAST TONIGHT THE RAIN WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERING SATURDAY MORNING BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS MOS WAS AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A BIT TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY. TRIMMED SEVERAL DEGREES OF HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD. /22/ .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WHILE ALOFT OUR FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND ECMWF...AGREE IN BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME SIZABLE DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO TIMING...PLACEMENT...AND STRENGTH CONCERNING IT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A DEEPENING EASTWARD SWINGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW...WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING PER THE GFS...OR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING PER THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE AGGRESSOR THIS MORNING WITH A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK...THUS KEEPING IT MUCH WETTER OVER THE CWA FOR MONDAY WHILE...AGAIN...THE GFS SWINGS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWER POPS AS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISCREPANCIES...WITH A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK VIA THE ECMWF...THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG FORCING...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR...COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED FURTHER IF A SLOWER EUROPEAN SOLUTION VERIFIES AND A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY...WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...POOLS OVER THE CWA. THE GFS IS JUST REALLY FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...NEVER REALLY GETS ANY INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION DESPITE GOOD FORCING AND WIND SHEAR. WITH THIS SAID...BECAUSE THERE SIMPLY REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GIVE ME ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANYTHING CONCERNING STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TO THE HWO THIS GO AROUND. THEREFORE...I'LL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT. I ESSENTIALLY WANT TO CONVEY THAT THERE IS A SOLUTION OUT THERE THAT IF IT VERIFIES...COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE ARKLAMISS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...A DRY-OUT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST KEEPING A COOL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /19/ && .AVIATION...THE FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF HBG THIS MORNING TAKING MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER OUR AREA LENDING TO VFR CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. MODELS INSIST THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BY 14Z AND RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTN AND EVNG. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVNG AT HBG BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 64 44 63 38 / 54 61 11 0 MERIDIAN 66 47 64 35 / 68 81 18 0 VICKSBURG 62 40 62 36 / 43 37 9 0 HATTIESBURG 68 52 68 42 / 81 85 27 0 NATCHEZ 63 43 63 40 / 58 57 10 0 GREENVILLE 55 37 55 35 / 16 17 8 0 GREENWOOD 59 38 58 33 / 23 19 9 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 22/19