885 FXUS63 KICT 220916 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 316 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE SNOWPACK AND THEN THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SYNOPSIS: THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SITS UNDER A BROAD TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES. THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS THE LEAD DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXITING THE REGION...AS SNOW HAD CEASED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN KANSAS...WINDS ARE DECREASING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER THE AREA. TODAY - SATURDAY: THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES. THERE IS GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE CUT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WITH THE THOUGHTS THAT DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...THE INSOLATION WILL BE FIGHTING THE SNOW COVER AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH BY TONIGHT...FEEL THE LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SNOWCOVER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THIS BROAD WAVE WILL MOVE OVER SATURDAY...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY - MONDAY: THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FOR THIS PERIOD. AFTER BRIEF RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...MAINLY THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW. THE LATEST ECMWF/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA THE LONGEST. DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...IF IT COMES IN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND REMAIN SNOW MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. WITH LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS NEXT WAVE OF SNOW WILL ADD TO THE CURRENT SNOWPACK. TO EARLY TO ESTIMATE ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DISCREPANCIES. STAY TUNED AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. TUESDAY - THURSDAY: IN THIS ACTIVE PERIOD...YET ANOTHER WAVE DIVES TOWARDS THE REGION...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE POSITION OF THE WAVE KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AND BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...MAKING IT SLOW GOING TO MELT THE CURRENT DEEP SNOWPACK. BILLINGS && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN STORM SYSTEM HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AS OF LATE THIS EVENING. A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...REMNANT CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE PREVAILING VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES BY 14Z FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. JMC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 26 5 31 21 / 0 10 10 0 HUTCHINSON 25 3 30 20 / 0 10 0 10 NEWTON 26 5 29 20 / 0 10 0 10 ELDORADO 27 5 31 20 / 0 10 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 27 8 34 23 / 0 10 10 0 RUSSELL 24 5 29 19 / 0 10 0 10 GREAT BEND 25 7 29 19 / 0 10 0 10 SALINA 27 4 30 19 / 0 0 0 10 MCPHERSON 26 5 29 20 / 0 10 0 10 COFFEYVILLE 33 14 36 24 / 0 10 10 0 CHANUTE 30 9 33 20 / 0 0 0 0 IOLA 29 10 33 20 / 0 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 31 10 35 21 / 0 10 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$