721 FXUS62 KMFL 171123 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 623 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2013/ DISCUSSION... DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SINCE BEING AT THE FORECASTER'S DESK SINCE THE START OF THE SHIFT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL AS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING LIKE MODELS HAD SUGGESTED EARLIER AND WILL BE CANCELLING THE FREEZE WATCH FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THERE ARE CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE MID 40S AND HAVE LOWERED ONLY A FEW DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT AND CANNOT ENVISION ANOTHER 12-14 DEGREES LOWER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SUNRISE. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE BUT WILL LEAVE THAT GOING SINCE THE WIND IS NEAR THE FORECAST OVER MOST AREAS AND WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES MIGHT NOT QUITE BE VERIFYING, IT IS STILL COLD TO THE STANDARD SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENT. THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FALLING MOSTLY DUE TO THE WIND STAYING ELEVATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND THEREFORE TOO MUCH MIXING COUNTERACTING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE REACHING NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST MAXIMUM RECORD TEMPERATURES RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY SO MOST STATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT BREAK RECORDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WITH COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GOING UNDER A CLEAR NIGHT SKY AND DRY GROUND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS IS MORE BELIEVABLE DUE TO THE ABOVE REASONINGS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SOUTH FLORIDA UNDERGOES A RETURN TO ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK AND ONE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH OR POSSIBLE CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MID WEEK. HOWEVER, ZONAL FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW THE FRONT TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATING. SO A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE LATE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. MARINE... STRONG NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUES OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING IN THE RANGE OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. IN FACT, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WIND AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. FIRE WEATHER... A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALLOWING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL WELL BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT ERC ALL ALSO WELL BELOW 35. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 20 FOOT WINDS COULD REACH 15 MPH OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREA BUT IT WILL BE ONLY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS IT IS BELIEVED AND AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR. SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADVISE BUT THERE COULD BE A SHORT FUSED WARNING PLACED IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON IF IT HAPPENS TO MATERIALIZE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 59 49 71 62 / - - 10 - FORT LAUDERDALE 60 50 72 66 / - - 10 - MIAMI 61 51 71 63 / - - 10 - NAPLES 59 45 72 58 / - - 10 - && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL PALM BEACH-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD- INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-METRO PALM BEACH. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR GLADES-HENDRY. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-LAKE OKEECHOBEE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC