104 FXUS65 KSLC 162304 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 404 PM MST SAT FEB 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH UTAH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH A STRONGER LONG DURATION STORM SYSTEM TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST UTAH EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE FRONT ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK IN FAVOR OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG AND FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY THIN OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL UTAH DUE TO THE FACT THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR AND DYNAMIC LIFT WILL REMAIN REMOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY IS NOT GOING TO STICK AROUND VERY LONG AS THE NEXT COLDER/STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY. BOTH THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE LITTLE ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT STORM WILL BE A LONG DURATION AND WIDESPREAD EVENT...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EARLY ON NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY. HEAVIER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH OR NORTHERN ARIZONA. A COLD CORE HANG BACK TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK TO PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASIN FRIDAY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEKEND...AND LIKELY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...CONGER AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)