977 FXUS64 KTSA 150953 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 353 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 .DISCUSSION... NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ONGOING ACROSS SE OK / WESTERN AR MARKS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY NOTICEABLE COLDER THAN YESTERDAY FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THE WESTERN LEG OF THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A FAST MOVING VORT MAX POSSIBLY SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY DRY GIVEN THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LIKELY CONFINED TO FAR NE OK/ FAR NW AR WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A MARKED REBOUND IN TEMPS ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THE NEXT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIKELY NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER BY MID DAY...AND CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...THE PERSISTENT TREND IN DATA IS WARRANTED IN KEEPING BULK OF PRECIP SHUNTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A GLANCING SHOT ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS IMPORTANT LEADING UP TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. DATA REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE NEXT WEEK SYSTEM GIVEN THAT ITS STILL 6-7 DAYS AWAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF IS LIKELY TO DELAY IF NOT PREVENT QUALITY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WOULD FAVOR THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BEING CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST REPRESENTED BY THE ECMWF DATA...WITH THE 00Z RUN SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE SVR WX POTENTIAL AND BEGIN TO RAISE THE WINTER WX CONCERNS. THIS PLACEMENT HOWEVER IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALTER AMONGST UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF RAISING PRECIP CHANCES AND TREND HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY AND WELL BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 46 24 47 33 / 0 10 0 0 FSM 51 29 47 29 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 49 26 49 34 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 44 19 46 24 / 0 10 0 0 FYV 44 21 41 26 / 0 10 10 0 BYV 44 24 40 28 / 0 20 10 0 MKO 46 25 45 31 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 43 25 43 28 / 0 20 0 0 F10 47 26 47 33 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 53 26 48 32 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM....07