442 FXUS63 KMPX 110843 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 243 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013 .DISCUSSION... OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AND EXTENDS BACK INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREAS AS WELL. BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW WORKING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 38 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING...INTO EARLY AFETRNOON AS SYSTEM WORKS NORTHEAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH EXPECTED OVER ANY ONE AREA TODAY...WITH THE BEXT CHANCE OF AROUND AN INCH IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. HEADLINES WILL BE TRIMMED SOME. WILL RETAIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ANYWAY, WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW REMAIN AT LEAST THIS MORNING...AND MNDOT REPORTING TRAVEL NOT ADVISED OR DIFFICULT TRAVEL IN THAT REGION OF THE STATE. PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SAW AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BORDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AGAINST THE BLIZZARD WARNING...WHERE THE LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ISSUE WILL BE A PROBLEM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS THE STRONGER WIND CORE DROPS THROUGH THAT REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF INTO AT LEAST THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE IT CLEAR FIRST OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MN AS THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW RATHER POTENT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SO WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FOR NOW. FOR THE LONGER TERM...THE COLDER AIR DOES DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ LAST BATCH OF -SN WITH LOWER VSBYS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ACROSS SE MN...AFFECTING MSP/RNH/EAU FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH BLSN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN/SW MN AFFECTING RWF/AXN. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS WESTERN/SW MN SINCE 9 PM...THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK EARLIER TODAY WILL LEAD TOWARD LESS OF A PROBLEM OF BLOWING SNOW. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE AXN WHERE LOCALLY 12 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. WILL CONTINUE THE BLSN AT RWF/AXN AND STC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR IFR VSBYS IN BLSN FOR RWF/STC. ELSEWHERE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR IFR...WITH A SLOW RISE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TO LOW END MVFR BY 18Z. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH VFR CONDS LIKELY AFT 03Z/12. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W/NW FOR THE TAF PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM 9-18Z...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT AXN/RWF/STC...AND OVER 26 KTS AT RNH/MSP/EAU. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTN...WITH WINDS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 12 KTS BY 00Z/12. KMSP... LAST BATCH OF IFR VSBYS IN -SN WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL SITE BY 7-8Z...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THRU 20Z. CIGS WILL HOLD NEAR IFR OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW RISE DURING THE MORNING...WITH CIGS RISING ABV 1.7K AFT 21Z. VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL START FROM THE NW...AND INCREASE TO 15-18 KTS BY 9-12Z...WITH GUSTS ARND 28 KTS DURING THE MORNING HRS. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO PERSIST BETWEEN 9-20Z...WITH WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 12 KTS BY 00Z/12. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM 300-320 DEGREES...WITH A SHIFT TO THE WNW BY 00Z/12. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. SW/W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. WED...VFR EARLY. IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CHC -SN LATE. W/SW WINDS 10 KTS. THU...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS -SN EARLY. W/NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS. ..JLT.. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHIPPEWA- DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT- YELLOW MEDICINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN- MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-TODD-WASECA- WATONWAN. WI...NONE. && $$ DWE/JLT