427 FXUS63 KJKL 102035 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 335 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA ROLLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS PUSHED A WARM AND COLD FRONT COUPLET INTO KENTUCKY. ALONG THE WARM FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE THE BATCH PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND NOW ENTERING THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HELPED TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST READINGS ARE NOW FOUND WITH THE RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW 50S ARE OCCURRING. DEWPOINTS IN THE RAIN ARE QUICKLY COMING UP INTO THE LOWER 40S...THOUGH THEY REMAIN QUITE DRY IN THE FAR EAST WHERE TEENS ARE REPORTED ON THE RIDGES AND MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS. THE WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE RAIN WITH LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS GRACING FAR EAST KENTUCKY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN OPENING MID LEVEL LOW ROLLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL SWEEP OVER EAST KENTUCKY EARLY MONDAY... THOUGH THE BULK OF THE WAVES ENERGY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS IT ALL STREAMS BY WEST TO EAST. AS THIS WAVE PASSES... HEIGHTS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY FALL OVER THE AREA BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GO ALONG WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION...THOUGH SPECIFICS FROM NAM12 WERE FOLLOWED MOST CLOSELY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GIVING THE AREA A THOROUGH SOAKING. WILL CONTINUE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE RAIN...THOUGH THE LIGHTNING TO OUR WEST HAS REALLY DROPPED OFF DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE RAIN EAST BY DAWN WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE SKIES ALLOWING FOR A RATHER SUNNY AFTERNOON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL MEAN A COOL NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL DIFFERENCE IN RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPS BY DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THE SEASON..THOUGH AS THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ONE ADDED CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER GIVEN DECENT...BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC AND A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT. HAVE ADDED HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL BREAK OFF A SECTION OF THE HWO TO MENTION THE SLIM POTENTIAL. FOLLOWED THE MILDER NAM12 RAW NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FAVORED ITS DIURNAL CURVE INTO MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELATIVE WARMTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... THE STANDARD ALLBLEND WAS USED WITH SOME MINOR TERRAIN ADJUSTMENTS MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP NEAR 100 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SINGLE DIGITS THEREAFTER...IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 FORECASTER CERTAINTY IS LOWER THAN TYPICAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...EVEN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN EJECTING LONGWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS THE CULPRIT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW AS IT HEADS EAST AND MODELS HANDLE IT DIFFERENTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AND TREND IN THE MODELING IS FOR A WEAKER...MORE DISJOINTED SURFACE FEATURE WHICH WILL TRACK ALONG JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT... PEAKING AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AND FAVORING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY A RAIN EVENT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT IF A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 10/12Z ECMWF PANS OUT...WE MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS ALL THEN POINT TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS DURING THIS PERIOD...EACH DEEPENING THE TROUGH AND REINFORCING THE COLD TEMPERATURES AS THEY PASS. THE PROBLEM IS NAILING DOWN THE TIMING ON THESE DISTURBANCES. AS SUCH...WE WILL KEEP WITH A GENERAL MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND EVERYWHERE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN HONE IN BETTER ON THE TIMING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 125 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH A HEALTHY BATCH OF SHOWERS. SLOWLY LOWERING CIGS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE CORE OF THE RAIN SHIELD CROSSING INTO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE CORE OF THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. AS AN INVERSION SETS UP TONIGHT...STRONGER SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC MAY LEAD TO LLWS FOR A TIME LATER THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS VIA AN UPDATE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GREIF