211 FXUS62 KCHS 020611 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 111 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. IT WILL BE AN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND. LATE THIS EVENING. VERY FEW TWEAKS ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...TEMPS RUNNING A BIT WARMER RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTATIONS MANY AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING. THEN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING W/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BECOME UNSTEADY AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY...ANY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INSOLATION. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO 60-65 DEGREES MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. OF GREATER INTEREST...EXPECT A RETURN OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. CHILLER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A SHADE BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. THEN...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NE. GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE ISN/T TOO STRONG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS...A BIT HIGHER WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THAN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND W/SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SCA CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE BEYOND 20 NM. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL MARINE ZONES...AND SCA CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BECOME COMMON FOR A FEW HOURS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...THEN A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL REPEAT OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. SEAS WILL FLUCTUATE IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...BUILDING TO 3-5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING BUT ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 FT NEARSHORE TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM AT OTHER TIMES. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AFTER A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUNDAY. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...SPR LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...