077 FXUS64 KMEG 270541 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013/ UPDATE... NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DISCUSSION... LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OVERTOP A COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS INCREASED FLOW SHOULD HELP TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. JLH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013/ DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. ALREADY...SOME PRECIP ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ON KNQA RADAR. THINK MOST OF THIS IS NOT HITTING THE GROUND BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SPRINKLES OCCUR ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED 20 POPS FOR THIS REASON. OVERNIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. CAN/T RULE OUT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE NAM INDICATE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH AS AN ANAFRONT THUS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON JANUARY 12TH. THUS IF THE FRONT DOES EVOLVE LIKE THIS EXPECT NO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT. NOW THE GFS DOES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THE GFS IS INDICATING 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE THAT WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHING BY THE TIME THE SQUALL LINE MOVES IN DUE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BEING IN A DYING PHASE THUS EXPECT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A LOW. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO SINCE THINGS COULD CHANGE. HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BECOME AN ISSUE IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MENTION OF RAIN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DRY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SHIFT EAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN. KRM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OCCUR AT TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN AFTER 28/00Z. EAST-NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH BETWEEN 6-9 KTS ON SUNDAY. CJC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 45 65 56 71 / 20 30 20 30 MKL 38 59 53 68 / 10 30 20 30 JBR 37 58 54 66 / 30 40 30 40 TUP 43 67 51 71 / 20 10 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$