028 FXUS64 KAMA 112235 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 435 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013 .DISCUSSION... TODAYS HIGH WIND EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MAINLY RESTRICTED TO OK PNHDL AND FAR WRN TX PNHDL EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NCNTRL TX PNHDL BASED ON REPORTS RECEIVED AS OF THIS WRITING. WIND SPEEDS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TIME REACHING EITHER HIGH WIND WARNING OR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LOCATIONS S AND E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVG OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH WAS A CRITICAL ELEMENT IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF THE STRONG WINDS WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM MID LEVELS. PLAN ON ALLOWING ALL WIND HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TNGT AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP WRN US TROF CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. A FAIRLY DECENT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ECMWF...GFS...CANADIAN MODELS CRANK OUT SOME LIGHT QPF DURG THIS TIME FRAME WHILE NAM IS DRY. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIP THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN OVERCOME THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS SEEN BY SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY PRECIP THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND WILL HAVE TO OCCUR VIA TOP DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS AS SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME TO RESULT IN MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION...HAVE COMPROMISED AND DECIDED TO USE THE 10 POP RULE FOR SAT AFTERNOON FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT SERN TX PNHDL...THEN MENTIONED FLURRIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IF IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO WHAT THE CURRENT FCST PCKG SUGGESTS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN US INTO CNTRL TEXAS DURG THE WED AND THU TIME FRAME. ECMWF HAS SPED UP THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE NEW 12Z GFS. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT A CLOSED LOW SCENARIO. NEVERTHELESS...NO MATTER WHICH MODEL IS PREFERRED...NONE OF THEM SUGGEST ANY PRECIP FOR TX AND OK PNHDLS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...HAVE RETAINED A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST. MODERATING TEMPS ARE SEEN FOR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANDRADE && .FIRE WEATHER... NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANDRADE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 19 33 13 29 9 / 0 10 10 0 0 BEAVER OK 17 31 11 29 9 / 0 10 10 0 0 BOISE CITY OK 12 29 7 26 7 / 0 10 10 0 0 BORGER TX 21 33 14 29 13 / 0 10 10 0 0 BOYS RANCH TX 17 33 11 29 8 / 0 10 10 0 0 CANYON TX 18 32 13 30 9 / 0 10 10 0 0 CLARENDON TX 22 38 17 32 12 / 0 5 10 0 0 DALHART TX 13 31 8 27 8 / 0 10 10 0 0 GUYMON OK 16 30 11 28 9 / 0 10 10 0 0 HEREFORD TX 17 34 12 30 8 / 0 10 10 0 0 LIPSCOMB TX 20 32 12 30 10 / 0 10 10 0 0 PAMPA TX 20 33 14 30 11 / 0 10 10 0 0 SHAMROCK TX 24 39 18 33 12 / 0 5 10 0 0 WELLINGTON TX 26 43 20 34 14 / 0 5 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY... HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB... MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS... SHERMAN. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...WHEELER. OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS. && $$